# 说明

RevisedGREArugement终极提纲

author: waventropy

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2012-9-6

2012-9-20

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2013-2-6

# 第1类

## 1

Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been made only by the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a “Palean” basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could have crossed it only by boat, and no Palean boats have been found. Thus it follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not uniquely Palean.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

1. The Brim River is deep and broad

2. the ancient Paleans could have crossed it only by boat

3. no Palean boats have been found

• Need evidence to show that in Palean times, the Brim River should be as deep and broad.

• Need evidence to prove that the Palean people have no ability to make boat and other means like canoe to across the Brim River in Palean times. Also should rule out the possiblity that the Lithos people have the ability to cross the river or using boats possessed by other culture.

• Need evidenve to prove that the possibility that the Paleans may arrived in Lithos through other means like trade, or the baskets were carried to the Lithos by flood.

# 第2类

## 2

The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a scientific journal.

“A recent study of eighteen rhesus (恒河猴) monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual’s levels of stimulation. The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone (激素) cortisol (皮质素) , which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence). The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.”

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

1. In stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone (激素) cortisol (皮质素) , which primes the body for increased activity levels

2. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).

3. first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.

• The common characteristic of firstborn infant monkeys, Firstborn human and first-time mother monkey can be the reason accounts for the phenomanenon.They are both primates so when the urgent situation is coming, they will react with hgiher hormone cortisol. So it is instead of the birth order but they are all primates.

• Another explanation is the ability of producing hormone cortisol maybe related to ages. for those too young or too old is hard to produce hormone cortisol

• also this is only a case study and 18 rhesus monkeys maybe special and can’t represent the whole rhesus monkeys.

• Still if producing hormone cortisol is just a reaction to some extreme emotion like fear or anxiety and we cann’t related it with birth order.

# 第3类

## 3

The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.

“Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza.

• If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels.

• Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically.

• Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza.

• There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza.

• Q1: we should make sure it is the presence of skateboarders that results in the current situation of the plaza. Maybe there are other reasons like the depressionn of economic and the decrease of population.

• Q2: is the presence of skateboarders that results a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism？ maybe it is the lack of managements and the fall of social secruity.

• Q3：The survey was based only on data from Central Plaza store owners, thus could not be representative of all citizens.

• Q4: is there other possible means to regain the plaza’s prosperity?

## 171

The following appeared as a letter to the editor from the owner of a skate shop in Central Plaza.

“Two years ago the city voted to prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. They claimed that skateboard users were responsible for the litter and vandalism that were keeping other visitors from coming to the plaza. In the past two years, however, there has only been a small increase in the number of visitors to Central Plaza, and litter and vandalism are still problematic. Skateboarding is permitted in Monroe Park, however, and there is no problem with litter or vandalism there. In order to restore Central Plaza to its former glory, then, we recommend that the city lift its prohibition on skateboarding in the plaza.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation

• Two years ago the city voted to prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. They claimed that skateboard users were responsible for the litter and vandalism that were keeping other visitors from coming to the plaza. In the past two years, however, there has only been a small increase in the number of visitors to Central Plaza, and litter and vandalism are still problematic.

• Skateboarding is permitted in Monroe Park, however, and there is no problem with litter or vandalism there.

• Q1:The survey of there has only been a small increase in the number of visitors to Central Plaza, and litter and vandalism are still problematic should be better reviewed and as the owner of a a skate shop in Central Plaza, those claims is suspicious at least the third-party obseveration should be introduced to judge whether it is a small increase and problematic. Moreover all those vague statement should be specific.

• Q2: Is it useful to lift the prohibition. If all the statements to be true, we cann’t say that the presence of skateboarders is related with the decrease of visitors and litter and vandalism. Maybe other reasons are accounted like lack of managements.

• Q3: is there other possible means to regain the plaza’s prosperity? Maybe it is the influence of depression and the low low products quality of shops in Central Plaza.

# 第4类

## 4

The following appeared in a letter from a homeowner to a friend.

“Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams Realty is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents; in contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams’ revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch’s$144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago I listed my home with Fitch, and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams Realty.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Adams has 40 real estate agents; in contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time.

• Adams’ revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch’s$144,000.

• Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago I listed my home with Fitch, and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month.

• Assumption1:the quality of a real estate firm is directly proportional to the number of its agents or the number of hours per week that its agents work.

• Assumption2: the higher revenue represents the higher profit and the average revenue means the whole situation of the company. To be specific, the unstated assumption is that the two can be compared in thieir business such as the same market positioning.

• Assumption3: all the situation is the same after 10 years has passed. Still the unstated assumption is the slow selling process of Fitch Realty is their own fault for example it maybe due to the depression of economy.

# 第5类

## 5

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

“On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island’s moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville’s town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island’s moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season.

• By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents

• Q1: Balmer Island may not be comparable to the neighboring island of Seaville such as population density, traffic facilities, roads situation, traffic control, local observation of traffic law. The author assumes that all other conditions in Balmer that might affect the rate of moped-pedestrian accidents will remain unchanged after the re­strictions are enacted.

• Q2: fails to consider other possible explanations for the 50% decline in the neighboring island of Seaville’s moped accident rate last year and provide no exact data about the similar limits on moped rentals.

• Q3: Is the number of mopeds the only thing accounts for the the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. For example, there are a rapid increase of population or the traffice sign system is too bad, or the climate of summer in Balmer Island is hard for mopeds.

• Q4: Is the limit of rental companies in summer useful the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents ? for example, people have their own mopeds or the number of moped accidents in summer is only a small part of the annual accidents.

• Q5： forget if the traffic system now can accept the increasing demand of people who uses mopeds now and whether along with the reduction of mopeds there will be more pressure in traffic even cause more accients.

## 159

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

“The population on Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island plans to limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island’s six moped rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. Last year, the neighboring island of Torseau enforced similar limits on moped rentals and saw a 50 percent reduction in moped accidents. We predict that putting these limits into effect on Balmer Island will result in the same reduction in moped accidents.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

• the population on Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island plans to limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island’s six moped rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season.

• Last year, the neighboring island of Torseau enforced similar limits on moped rentals and saw a 50 percent reduction in moped accidents.

• Q1: Balmer Island may not be comparable to the neighboring island of Torseau such as population density, traffic facilities, roads situation, traffic control, local observation of traffic law. The author assumes that all other conditions in Balmer that might affect the rate of moped-pedestrian accidents will remain unchanged after the re­strictions are enacted.

• Q2: fails to consider other possible explanations for the 50% decline in the neighboring island of Torseau’s moped accident rate last year and provide no exact data about the similar limits on moped rentals.

• Q3: Is the number of mopeds the only thing accounts for the the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. For example, there are a rapid increase of population or the traffice sign system is too bad, or the climate of summer in Balmer Island is hard for mopeds.

• Q4: Is the limit of rental companies in summer useful the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents ? for example, people have their own mopeds or the number of moped accidents in summer is only a small part of the annual accidents.

• Q5： forget if the traffic system now can accept the increasing demand of people who uses mopeds now and whether along with the reduction of mopeds there will be more pressure in traffic even cause more accients.

• Q6: what percentage of mopeds in Balmer Island is rented by the six companies.

## 173

.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

“The population on Balmer Island doubles during the summer months. During the summer, then, the town council of Balmer Island should decrease the maximum number of moped rentals allowed at each of the island’s six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day. This will significantly reduce the number of summertime accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. The neighboring island of Torseau actually saw a 50 percent reduction in moped accidents last year when Torseau’s town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals. To help reduce moped accidents, therefore, we should also enforce these limitations during the summer months.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• The population on Balmer Island doubles during the summer months. During the summer, then, the town council of Balmer Island should decrease the maximum number of moped rentals allowed at each of the island’s six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day. This will significantly reduce the number of summertime accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians.

• The neighboring island of Torseau actually saw a 50 percent reduction in moped accidents last year when Torseau’s town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.

• Assumption1:Balmer Island and Torseau may be comparable.

• Assumption2:the percentage of mopeds in Balmer Island rented by the six companies is very large.

• Assumption3:The only cause of accidents is the number of mopeds and other conditions like the number of population and the traffic situation.

• Assumption4:The accidents happened in summer is the majority of the accidents numbers only by this meanings can the limits in summertime can be effective.（这是针对论点来说的，虽然论据中表明his will significantly reduce the number of summertime accidents）

• Assumption5: accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians 和 moped accidents is the same

# 第6类

## 6

Arctic deer live on islands in Canada’s arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer’s being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Arctic deer live on islands in Canada’s arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.

• local hunters says the deer populations are declining.

• these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt.

• evidence1：The accuracy of the reports from local hunters can not be cast doubt on. (selective sample)

• evidence2: the decrease of Arctic deer is beyond the normal margin and it is not only a short-term phenomenon

• evidence3: The global warming trends may have no effects on the specific region mentioned by the editorial. Although the two happens together we can not conclude that global warming is the reason. So the author needs to careful study the route of Arctic deer to get the answer what changes of these ice layer.

• evidence4: The author should make us convienced that deer can not adapt themselves to the new weather by certain means like finding new food sources or change their age-old migration patterns.

• evidence5: Alternative explanations can also account for the decline in arctic deer population like new dead virus or air polluation or the disaperance of habitat.

# 第7类

## 7

The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.

“We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children’s book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects.

• Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children’s book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten.

• Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café.”

• Q1:Are the two bookstores comparable at every aspect? Maybe Regal Books uses café store to compensate the low income of their book selling, in this case, Monarch can ignore the opening of a new book store. Still we can question the effectiveness in attracting csutomers?

• Q2: Is it appropriate to use children’s book section for the café just for a suvery indicates that a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten? A decline in the percentage of the population under age ten doesn’t mean the whole unmber of children under age 10 is decreasing. Maybe it is due to the qucik increse of population of adult like immigrant. Further more, even the smaller population under 10 doesn’t mean the less profit from children books. The fewer number of children may get more support from their parents and spend more money on children books. Still the if the book price rises, we can not safely say the profit of books will decrease.

• Q3: Use children books as café may hurt Monarch Books’ reputation of wide selection of books on all subjects.

• Q4: Although Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, this doesn’t ensure that it has a large customer base. Furthermore if it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects, we can not ensure that opening of a café can still keep its unique characteristic. The noise and smell of café may ruin the atomsphere of Monarch.

## 98

The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books.

“Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and Bean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention to open a Collegeville store. Monarch Books should open its own in-store café in the space currently devoted to children’s books. Given recent national census data indicating a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten, sales of children’s books are likely to decline. By replacing its children’s books section with a café, Monarch Books can increase profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and Bean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention to open a Collegeville store.

• Given recent national census data indicating a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten, sales of children’s books are likely to decline.

• By replacing its children’s books section with a café, Monarch Books can increase profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean.

• Assumption1: Book and Bean can successfully open its new store in Collegeville if not we can doubt the neccessity of change.

• Assumption2: if Monarch Books doesn’t open café, it will lose its competion against Book and Bean.

• Assumption3: a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten will result in the decrease of number of teenages under 10.

• Assumption4: the decrease of children will result in the decrease of children book need.

• Assumption5: Still he should assume that the price of children books doesn’t rise.

• Assumption6: Opening its own in-store café in the space currently devoted to children’s books, will not hurt its reputation of wide selection of books on all subjects.

• Assumption7: Still this new in-store café will not disturb the reader-friendly atmosphere of Monarch Books.

## 99

The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books.

“Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and Bean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention to open a Collegeville store. Monarch Books should open its own in-store café in the space currently devoted to children’s books. Given recent national census data indicating a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten, sales of children’s books are likely to decline. By replacing its children’s books section with a café, Monarch Books can increase profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and Bean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention to open a Collegeville store.

• Given recent national census data indicating a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten, sales of children’s books are likely to decline.

• By replacing its children’s books section with a café, Monarch Books can increase profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean.

• evidence1: Book and Bean can successfully open its new store in Collegeville if not we can doubt the neccessity of change.

• evidence2: if Monarch Books doesn’t open café, it will lose its competion against Book and Bean.

• evidence3: the opening of Book and Bean will threaten the status and profit of Monarch Books for example they sells the same kind of books and serves the same target population.

• evidence4: a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten will result in the decrease of number of teenages under 10.

• evidence5: the decrease of children will result in the decrease of children book need.

• evidence6: Still he should assume that the price of children books doesn’t rise.

• evidence7: Opening its own in-store café in the space currently devoted to children’s books, will not hurt its reputation of wide selection of books on all subjects.

• evidence8：Still this new in-store café will not disturb the reader-friendly atmosphere of Monarch Books.

# 第8类

## 8

The following appeared in a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College.

“To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories. Buckingham’s enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, will double over the next 50 years, thus making existing dormitory space inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has risen in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Buckingham’s enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, will double over the next 50 years, thus making existing dormitory space inadequate.

• the average rent for an apartment in our town has risen in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing.

• attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham.

• Evidence1: the trends of increasing enrollment will continue in the future. He will need to proivde the data of other universities or the enrollement number of Buckingham last few years. In deed, the enrollment number will double over the next 50 years is really a very small grow every year. In contrast, we can get the number doubled over 5 years if the year growth rate is 9 percent. (the exact growth rate every year is 0.01395948 if you consider one year two enrollment it will be 0.00695555) So we need more evidence to judge whether it is a large growth and better illustrate that current dormitories in Buckingham could not meet students’ housing needs

• Evidence2: we should prove that the rent for off-campus apartment will continue to increase in the following years. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has risen doesn’t mean all the rent for apartment will rise. For university students, the rise of rent in top level will not affect their lives.

• Evidence3: The author should prove that the rise of the house rent is a long-term phonomenon and we can pridcit the long time trend of rent.

• Evidence4: We should rule out the possiblity that along with the rise of the rent the economic situation of students will also be risen. In this case, giving aid to those students from poor family will be more effective.

• Evidence5: A new dormitory would be both sufficient nor necessary for attracting prospective students.

# 第9类

## 9

Nature’s Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products, is opening its next franchise in the town of Plainsville. The store should prove to be very successful: Nature’s Way franchises tend to be most profitable in areas where residents lead healthy lives, and clearly Plainsville is such an area. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. Finally, Plainsville’s schoolchildren represent a new generation of potential customers: these schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-life program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Nature’s Way will be very successful in areas where residents lead healthy lives, and clearly Plainsville is such an area.

• Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs.

• The local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full.

• Plainsville’s schoolchildren represent a new generation of potential customers: these schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-life program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.

• Assumption1: all the statements the author named can prove residents in Plainsville lead healthy lives.

• Assumption2: Even assumption1 is true, we have to assume that residents in Plainsville will buy the products of Nature’s Way and Nature’s Way can win the competion if there are another stores in Plainsville.

• Assumption3: All the reports of Plainsville’s merchants are ture and reliable and the hot sale of running shoes and exercise clothing is due to their love of sports not due to a sudden rise of population like baby boom or the hold of a sports events like Olympics or the world cup.

• Assumption4:the local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full means residents in Plainsville lead healthy lives. But they can be participating an weight loss class.

• Assumption5：A certain fitness program is mandatory for Plainesville’s school­children can not persuade us that those children will have the needs of healthy food of NW. Still this not ensure us that along with children’s growth they will buy NW’s product.

• Assumption6: Strong sales of exercise apparel necessarily indicate that Plainesville residents would be interested in Nature’s Way’s products, and that these residents are interested in exercising.

• Assumption7: people who exercise regularly are also interested in buying health food and health-related products.

• Assumption8: 8. The arguer unfairly assumes that Plainesville residents will prefer NW over other merchants that sell similar products

## 88

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Health Naturally, a small but expanding chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

“Our previous experience has been that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build one of our new stores in Plainsville, which clearly has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise equipment are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight-training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville’s schoolchildren are required to participate in a program called Fitness for Life, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Health Naturally previous experience has been that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build one of our new stores in Plainsville, which clearly has many such residents.

• Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise equipment are at all-time highs.

• The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight-training and aerobics classes are always full.

• lainsville’s schoolchildren are required to participate in a program called Fitness for Life, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.

• Evidence1: we must prove residents in Plainsville lead healthy lives and residents in Plainsville will buy the products of Health Naturally and Health Naturally can win the competion if there**are another stores in Plainsville..

• Evidence2: All the reports of Plainsville’s merchants are ture and reliable and the hot sale of running shoes and exercise clothing is due to their love of sports not due to a sudden rise of population like baby boom or the hold of a sports events like Olympics or the world cup.

• Evidence3**：the local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full means residents in Plainsville lead healthy lives so they can not be participating an weight loss class.

• Evidence4:The certain fitness program is mandatory for Plainesville’s school­children will persuade those childrenbuy the products of Health Naturally and keep buying along with their growth. And those children can generate enough profit for Health Naturally.

• Evidence5: Strong sales of exercise apparel necessarily indicate that Plainesville residents would be interested in Health Naturally products, and that these residents are interested in exercising.

• Evidence6: Plainesville residents will prefer Health Naturally over other merchants that sell similar products. * Evidence7: the cost of building such a new store is convinced less than the profit can be earned by new store .

## 99

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Health Naturally, a small but expanding chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

“Our previous experience has been that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build one of our new stores in Plainsville, which clearly has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise equipment are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight-training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville’s schoolchildren are required to participate in a program called Fitness for Life, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Health Naturally previous experience has been that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build one of our new stores in Plainsville, which clearly has many such residents.

• Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise equipment are at all-time highs.

• The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight-training and aerobics classes are always full.

• lainsville’s schoolchildren are required to participate in a program called Fitness for Life, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.

• Assumption1: all the statements the author named can prove residents in Plainsville lead healthy lives.

• Assumption2: Even assumption1 is true, we have to assume that residents in Plainsville will buy the products of Health Naturally and Health Naturally can win the competion if there are another stores in Plainsville.

• Assumption3: All the reports of Plainsville’s merchants are ture and reliable and the hot sale of running shoes and exercise clothing is due to their love of sports not due to a sudden rise of population like baby boom or the hold of a sports events like Olympics or the world cup.

• Assumption4:the local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full means residents in Plainsville lead healthy lives. But they can be participating an weight loss class.

• Assumption5：A certain fitness program is mandatory for Plainesville’s school­children can not persuade us that those children will have the needs of healthy food of NW. Still this not ensure us that along with children’s growth they will buy Health Naturally’s product.

• Assumption6: Strong sales of exercise apparel necessarily indicate that Plainesville residents would be interested in Health Naturally’s products, and that these residents are interested in exercising.

• Assumption7: people who exercise regularly are also interested in buying health food and health-related products.

• Assumption8: 8. The arguer unfairly assumes that Plainesville residents will prefer NW over other merchants that sell similar products

# 第10类

## 10

Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia. Using an observation-centered approach to studying Tertian culture, he concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. Recently another anthropologist, Dr. Karp, visited the group of islands that includes Tertia and used the interview-centered method to study child-rearing practices. In the interviews that Dr. Karp conducted with children living in this group of islands, the children spent much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. Dr. Karp decided that Dr. Field’s conclusion about Tertian village culture must be invalid. Some anthropologists recommend that to obtain accurate information on Tertian child-rearing practices, future research on the subject should be conducted via the interview-centered method.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia. Using an observation-centered approach to studying Tertian culture, he concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. Recently another anthropologist, Dr. Karp, visited the group of islands that includes Tertia and used the interview-centered method to study child-rearing practices.

• In the interviews that Dr. Karp conducted with children living in this group of islands, the children spent much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village.

• Dr. Karp decided that Dr. Field’s conclusion about Tertian village culture must be invalid.

• Q1: Talking more about their biological parents does not indicate that those children were reared by their parents.

• Q2: There may have been dramatic changes in Teria children during the past 20 years.

• Q3: Dr. Field only visited the island of Tert**ia but Dr. Karp visited the group of islands that includes Tertia , this may influence the accuracy of the judgement.

• Q4: No evidence could guarantee that Dr. Karp’s team will establish a more accurate understanding of island cultures just because they are using the interview-centered method. For example, how the interview questions are designed, are they biased, or the participators are not carefully answered the questions.

• Q5: Even if Dr. Karp is a noted anthropologist, we can not only rely on his research to decide whether the new project’s direction. We should introduce independant third-party’s judgement.

• Q6: Is interview-centered method the only best method for this research? Can immsersion method be effective?

## 21

The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.

“Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research of mine proves that Dr. Field’s conclusion about Tertian village culture is invalid and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid as well. The interview-centered method that my team of graduate students is currently using in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• This research of mine proves that Dr. Field’s conclusion about Tertian village culture is invalid and thus the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid as well.

• The interview-centered method that my team of graduate students is currently using in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures.

## 23

The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.

“Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research of mine proves that Dr. Field’s conclusion about Tertian village culture is invalid and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid as well. The interview-centered method that my team of graduate students is currently using in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

# 第11类

## 11

The council of Maple County, concerned about the county’s becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

• Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since.

• opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled.

• Q1:The author does not demonstrate that Maple County,Pine City and Chestnut City are comparable at every aspect. 几者都是列举论证的首要问题就是可比性的大小。 like marco-economic environment, supple and demand of realty business, land supply ,living condition, purchase power. What’s more ten years and 15 years ago and present time of Maple county are very different.

• Q2: Are Maple County,Pine City and Chestnut City limited the same kind of realty business? For example, Maple County and Chestnut City are limiting the supply of new housing, but these houses can be residental house and commercial property but the Pine City adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing, So whether it is kind of housen usage changed the effects of policy or the Maple County should better revise its policy.

• Q3: The author fails to prove that the situation of Chestnut City will also take place in Maple City, or that Maple will not follow Chestnut County ’s pattern.

• Q4: the aim of Maple County is to prevent the development of existing farmland and becoming overdeveloped, so is there another ways to realize this aim? Like promote new economy like Financial Industry， Information Industry and Education Industry.

# 第12类

## 12

Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by 30 percent. Potential employers, looking at this dramatic rise in grades, believe that grades at Omega are inflated and do not accurately reflect student achievement; as a result, Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should terminate student evaluation of professors.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by 30 percent.

• Potential employers, looking at this dramatic rise in grades, believe that grades at Omega are inflated and do not accurately reflect student achievement; as a result, Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University.

• Evidence1： The graduates from the two universities may not be comparable. The two school may have many differences. like the major influence, Alpha University may have many engineering specialityies but Omega University is famous as its literature and science study.

• E2: Still we don’t know whether Alpha University adopt student evaluation of professors. If not, any difference between the two can be referred as the reason why the two universities has such a big differences.

• E3: The advice fails to mention the positive effects of the evaluation system. for example: it will help the professor better change their teaching skills and makes the students invloved in the classroom more.

• E4: The view of Potential employers should be better stated in more details like their opinion represents the whole opinion of Potential employers.

• E5: The reasons makes Alpha University students get jobs easier like over-all employment tutoring and a more close to work course system.

• E6: There will be other possible ways by which Omega can increase its job-placement record.

# 第13类

## 13

In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County last year lowered its speed limit from 55 to 45 miles per hour on all county highways. But this effort has failed: the number of accidents has not decreased, and, based on reports by the highway patrol, many drivers are exceeding the speed limit. Prunty County should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths, resurfacing rough highways, and improving visibility at dangerous intersections. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County last year lowered its speed limit from 55 to 45 miles per hour on all county highways. But this effort has failed: the number of accidents has not decreased, and, based on reports by the highway patrol, many drivers are exceeding the speed limit.

• the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths, resurfacing rough highways, and improving visibility at dangerous intersections. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.

• 两个现象说明，限速的失败：分别是事故数没有减少和许多司机依旧超速。但是我们还是需要其他证据来说明都是限速而不是其他原因引起的这些变化。同时巡警的报告是不是可信？

• The author fails to rule out the possibility that not enough time has passed to determine the effectiveness of this change in reducing the accident rate. The fact that most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit does not indicate that the policy is ineffective. Maybe it needs time for the drivers to adopt to the new speed limmitation.

• The argument assumes that all other factors affecting highway accident rates have remained unchanged since the county lowered its speed limit. for example the climate doesn’t changed and the traffic sign is the same.

• The cited statistic involves only “reported” accidents in Butler County, we do not know the percentage of accidents which are going unreported in that county. maybe the car number in Prunty County has greatly incresed recently.

• the author unfairly implies that the road improvement project in Butler County has served to decrease the incidence of road accidents in that county. for example, maybe many prople in Butler County like to use public traffic system or whether Butler County sets too high tax stands for private cars.

• The situation at Prunty County and Butler County may not be comparable. The author fails to demonstrate that road improvement will be both sufficient and necessary to guarantee fewer accidents in Prunty County.

# 第14类

## 14

The following appeared as part of an article in a business magazine.

“A recent study rating 300 male and female Mentian advertising executives according to the average number of hours they sleep per night showed an association between the amount of sleep the executives need and the success of their firms. Of the advertising firms studied, those whose executives reported needing no more than 6 hours of sleep per night had higher profit margins and faster growth. These results suggest that if a business wants to prosper, it should hire only people who need less than 6 hours of sleep per night.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• A recent study rating 300 male and female Mentian advertising executives according to the average number of hours they sleep per night showed an association between the amount of sleep the executives need and the success of their firms.

• Of the advertising firms studied, those whose executives reported needing no more than 6 hours of sleep per night had higher profit margins and faster growth.

• 首先就是研究的问题，这项研究是所有论断的基础。第一个假设就是这个研究的样本有代表性。对于300名样本的selection是依照严格抽样调查的程序来的，样本可以反映广告行业的男女比例；第二个假设是调查的机构是中立的，没有偏颇。

• 第三个假设是：没有其他原因导致了睡眠不足6小时的管理者所在的公司更加成功。比如：是不是这段时间，所在的广告行业普遍繁荣，是行业性的增长带来了成绩？或者是不是这些人所在的公司管理更加严格，工作量又很大，所以他们的睡眠较少，但是这也不是可以断定睡眠少有关系的。

• 第四个假设：这是推论但是也必须成立。即任何时候只要管理者减少睡眠，企业业绩必须增长，这个显然是不切合实际的。

• 第五个假设：要使结论成立，必须假设针对广告行业的调查可以推广到其他行业去，才会有if a business wants to prosper, it should hire only people who need less than 6 hours of sleep per night.

# 第15类

## 15

The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

“Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term ‘butter’ to refer to either butter or margarine.”

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

• only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.

• Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.

• Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term ‘butter’ to refer to either butter or margarine.

• 调查永远必须有代表性，公正客观。

• Some customers might be unhappy but didn’t complain. so only about 2 percent of customers have complained, not indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.

• The author fails to indicate the actual number of servers who reported, and what percentage of the whole server group do they make up, thus we cannot evaluate if the fact cited above is significant. Also, the author does not tell us the percentage of customers who do not complain.

• The fact that few customers complain when they are given margarine might be explained by other factors, not necessarily by the explanations provided by the author. for example many people maybe just don’t want to ruin the happy environment of lunch.

• The author fails to provide any information concerning the possible change in the profit of Happy Pancake House after the replacement, thus we cannot evaluate the overall effect of the recommendation mentioned above.

## 51

The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

“Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term ‘butter’ to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.

• Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.

• Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term ‘butter’ to refer to either butter or margarine.

## 130

The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

“Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have filed a formal complaint, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term ‘butter’ to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants throughout the rest of the country.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

## 131

The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

“Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term ‘butter’ to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, we predict that Happy Pancake House will be able to increase profits dramatically if we extend this cost-saving change to all our restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

## 133

The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

“Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term ‘butter’ to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

# 第16类

## 16

In surveys Mason City residents rank water sports (swimming, boating, and fishing) among their favorite recreational activities. The Mason River flowing through the city is rarely used for these pursuits, however, and the city park department devotes little of its budget to maintaining riverside recreational facilities. For years there have been complaints from residents about the quality of the river’s water and the river’s smell. In response, the state has recently announced plans to clean up Mason River. Use of the river for water sports is, therefore, sure to increase. The city government should for that reason devote more money in this year’s budget to riverside recreational facilities.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Use of Mason river for water sports is, therefore, sure to increase.

• The city government should for that reason devote more money in this year’s budget to riverside recreational facilities.

• In surveys Mason City residents rank water sports (swimming, boating, and fishing) among their favorite recreational activities. The Mason River flowing through the city is rarely used for these pursuits, however, and the city park department devotes little of its budget to maintaining riverside recreational facilities.

• For years there have been complaints from residents about the quality of the river’s water and the river’s smell.

• In response, the state has recently announced plans to clean up Mason River.

• 调查问题永远是值得考量的。要使得调查成立有如下许多假设：参与调查的居民有普遍的代表性，可以代表绝大多数的居民的意见的；参与的居民有如实地回答居民的问题；调查的方案设计科学合理；调查实施机构中立，客观，无利益干扰。

• The author simply assumes that it is the quality of the water in Mason River that prevents residents from using it for recreational activities.是不是水质阻止使用Mason river。

• The author fails to consider if Mason River is suitable for those water sports favored by residents in Mason, and if residents are willing to use the river for recreational activities. Mason river是不是适合水上运动，比如河水太急，这是运输河道。

• Granted that recreational use of the river is to increase, we are not convinced that the use of the publicly owned lands along the river will also increase. 比如居民可以去其他的水上运动场馆，进行替代性的活动而不是水上运动。

• No evidence could illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed plan, and how much time would it take for the plan to be effective, thus we cannot ensure that recreational use of the river will automatically increase. 首先州政府的计划必须可以如期实施；其次，河道清理计划可以解决水质问题而不是暂时性的缓解；这个过程中居民对水上运动的热情必须不消退。

• The author does not provide evidence to illustrate the necessity of increasing budget for improvement s to the public lands. 首先，清理河道可以完成；而且可以吸引居民的注意力；没有其他投资渠道，比如私人投资，民间投资，公众捐款等。

# 第17类

## 17

The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station.

“To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth in our listening area, but that growth has resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement. We must make listeners of these new residents. We could switch to a music format tailored to their tastes, but a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music. Instead we should change to a news and talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth in our listening area, but that growth has resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement.

• We could switch to a music format tailored to their tastes, but a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music.

• Instead we should change to a news and talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area.

• 为了作出改变必须得到的evidence为： 到底是什么使得电台的听众人数下降。同时如果作者的论述正确，那么我们必须对于新搬迁来的人口进行调查才可以确认他们的喜好而不是武断地判定，他们的收听倾向。

• The arguer falsely assumes that older people do not prefer rock-and-roll but favor all-news program­ming.

• The sales of recorded music are not a good indication of whether people prefer rock-and-roll.

• We do not know what types of music recordings actually experienced sales decline in the music stores, thus cannot evaluate if the decline results from decreasing popularity of rock-and-roll.

• The manager fails to illustrate that people who buy music recordings are basically the same group of people who listen to music on the radio. (are the respondents representative?)

• The fact that citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics before the election does not necessarily imply that they will also be interested in continuous news program all the time. (When was the survey conducted?)

• Several other factors may also contribute to the decline in the number of listeners. for example the listeners have gained the new source for the music like they can download mp3 from the Internet; or the ecomomny is under depression so people decrease their money spending on music.

• 同时作者说新闻和访谈节目收到这个地区听众的欢迎但是没有给出WWAC电台和其他电台是否据具有可比性？其他电台和WWAC是不是有极大的不同？一旦采用新的形式会不会赶走很多原有的观众？

## 93

The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station.

“WWAC must change from its current rock-music format because the number of listeners has been declining, even though the population in our listening area has been growing. The population growth has resulted mainly from people moving to our area after their retirement, and we must make listeners of these new residents. But they seem to have limited interest in music: several local stores selling recorded music have recently closed. Therefore, just changing to another kind of music is not going to increase our audience. Instead, we should adopt a news-and-talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

## 109

The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

“Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, that the number of people in our listening area over fifty years of age has increased dramatically, while our total number of listeners has declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful. The switch from rock-and-roll music to 24-hour news will attract older listeners and secure KNOW radio’s future.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, that the number of people in our listening area over fifty years of age has increased dramatically, while our total number of listeners has declined.

• music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music.

• continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful.

• 假设一：听众人数下降是因为rock-and-roll music。这缺少证据。

• 假设二：50岁以上人口不喜欢rock-and-roll music导致了 the number of people in our listening area over fifty years of age has increased dramatically, while our total number of listeners has declined。 但是这不成立因为如果其他年龄段损失听众人数过多那么总人数还是会下降。同时，即使这些50岁以上人口喜欢rock-and-roll music也不代表他们必须听广播，比如他们可以去网上下载mp3。

• 假设三： 作者假设，人们如果喜欢音乐一定回去买recorded music，所以recorded music的下降代表了人们不喜欢这种音乐。但是人们喜欢音乐一定要去买唱片么？其实还有其他途径的到音乐比如下载，或者租用CD。

• 假设四： 这两个地方的情形可以类比。但是neighboring cities的成功不一定可以在 radio station KNOW复制。这两个城市的人口结构，听众趣味，运行模式都会影响最后的结构。

• 假设五：作者必须假设改版后，那些50岁以上的人口喜欢24-hour news同时以前那些喜欢摇滚音乐的人也会喜欢上24-hour news。这样电台的改版才会成功。

## 110

The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of KNOW radio station.

“Several factors indicate that KNOW radio can no longer succeed as a rock-and-roll music station. Consider, for example, that the number of people in our listening area over fifty years of age has increased dramatically, while our total number of listeners has declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of rock-and-roll music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful. We predict that switching KNOW radio from rock-and-roll music to 24-hour news will allow the station to attract older listeners and make KNOW radio more profitable than ever.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

# 第18类

## 18

The following is a memorandum from the business manager of a television station.

“Over the past year, our late-night news program has devoted increased time to national news and less time to weather and local news. During this period, most of the complaints received from viewers were concerned with our station’s coverage of weather and local news. In addition, local businesses that used to advertise during our late-night news program have canceled their advertising contracts with us. Therefore, in order to attract more viewers to our news programs and to avoid losing any further advertising revenues, we should expand our coverage of weather and local news on all our news programs.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Over the past year, our late-night news program has devoted increased time to national news and less time to weather and local news. During this period, most of the complaints received from viewers were concerned with our station’s coverage of weather and local news.

• In addition, local businesses that used to advertise during our late-night news program have canceled their advertising contracts with us.

• 假设一：抱怨电话必须有足够的数量和观众代表性。The manager fails to provide the total number of complaints received before our coverage of news were changed. What’s more The manager simply assumes that those complaints are representative of the opinions of our entire audience.

• 假设二： 大部分观众的电话都是关于天气预报减少的这一事实。因为，观众抱怨节目不一定代表是因为节目时间减少，也有可能是节目质量太差，报道不准确这些。The manager fails to inform us the details of the complaints we received, thus we cannot evaluate if these audience are dissatisfied with the quantity of weather and local news. In addition,The manager fails to analyze the actual attitude of our audience toward the late-night news program, the program might be welcome although there are a few complaints about it.

• 假设三：The manager unjustifiably assumes that it is the change in our coverage of news that caused those businesses to cancel their contract with us.第一，没有给出赞助商退订广告的具体数量，占所有赞助商赞助资金总额的比例。如果只是少数公司这种情况不足为虑。第二，即使是大范围减少，也可能是其他原因，比如经济滑坡，这些公司的资金周转出了问题；再者也不一定是减少天气预报时间带来的，可能是出现了新的广告渠道。

• 假设四： 必须假设所有的观众都会喜欢expand our coverage of weather and local news on all our news programs，否则如果观众不喜欢那么不会实现扩大收入的目的。比如对于喜欢全国新闻的客户怎么办？ The necessity of expanding the coverage of weather and local news on all our news programs is open to doubt.

• 假设五：The manager ignores many other possible methods to attract more viewers and to increase advertising revenues.

## 20

The following is a memorandum from the business manager of a television station.

“Over the past year, our late-night news program has devoted increased time to national news and less time to weather and local news. During this time period, most of the complaints received from viewers were concerned with our station’s coverage of weather and local news. In addition, local businesses that used to advertise during our late-night news program have just canceled their advertising contracts with us. Therefore, in order to attract more viewers to the program and to avoid losing any further advertising revenues, we should restore the time devoted to weather and local news to its former level.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

# 第19类

## 19

Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast; since that time, its share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly. Given WCQP’s recent success with call-in advice programming, and citing a nationwide survey indicating that many radio listeners are quite interested in such programs, the station manager of KICK in Medway recommends that KICK include more call-in advice programs in an attempt to gain a larger audience share in its listening area.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast; since that time, its share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly.

• A nationwide survey indicating that many radio listeners are quite interested in such programs

• the station manager of KICK in Medway recommends that KICK include more call-in advice programs in an attempt to gain a larger audience share in its listening area.

• Q1:对于论据1首先是不是因为 increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast使得WCQP’s share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly是值得我们考虑的。是不是其他原因引起的？比如人口变化，老年人人口比例增加了，而他们更加喜欢广播？ 或者因为很多的WCQP的竞争对手推出广播电台，转向新的媒体比如电视，互联网导致了WCQP的听众增加。或者WCQP还加入了新的更有吸引力的节目？

• Q2： increased significantly是一个与增长幅度有有关的概念，我们必须知道原来的基数是多少才可以判断增加的人数。比如原来有1%的听众，到达3%就可以说是很大的增加。

• Q3： 全国性质的调查。调查第一怀疑独立性，权威性，代表性。则个调查是谁做的？其次，调查有一个很模糊的概念，many代表多少观众喜欢call-in advice programs？这些观众所占总体人数的比例是多少？这次观众的意见是不是代表总体观众的意见？最后，即使这些都成立全国性质的调查是不是可以在Medway完美代表，说不定Medway有自己独特的人口结构。

• Q4： the station manager of KICK in Medway的意见是否考虑到KICK和WCQP之间是不是有可以对比的地方。两地的观众兴趣，经济水平，人口结构，新闻报道习惯是否可以参照？同时Two years ago的政策是不是可以对比？有没有什么新的变化？

# 第20类

## 22

According to a recent report, cheating among college and university students is on the rise. However, Groveton College has successfully reduced student cheating by adopting an honor code, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated. Groveton’s honor code replaced a system in which teachers closely monitored students; under that system, teachers reported an average of thirty cases of cheating per year. In the first year the honor code was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey, a majority of Groveton students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without. Thus, all colleges and universities should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton’s in order to decrease cheating among students.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• Groveton College has successfully reduced student cheating by adopting an honor code, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated.

• all colleges and universities should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton’s in order to decrease cheating among students.

• Groveton’s honor code replaced a system in which teachers closely monitored students; under that system, teachers reported an average of thirty cases of cheating per year. In the first year the honor code was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen.

• Moreover, in a recent survey, a majority of Groveton students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without.

• Q1:是不是原来的制度老师抓作弊很严格，新的制度是不是学生之间有互相包庇，隐瞒不报的情况？The assumption that students will keep their promise under the existence of the codes is unwarranted. What’s more, The author unfairly assumes that Groveton stu­dents are just as capable of detecting cheating as faculty monitors, and that these students are just as likely to report cheating whenever they observe it. In addition,The author fails to investigate the number of cases of cheating which were not reported.

• Q2：Other factors could also explain the decreasing number of cases of cheating at Groveton.比如五年后，入学的人数大大减少，同时这也代表着我们并不知道作弊在学生群体中的比例，或许虽然作弊总数下降但是作弊的比例却在上升。

• Q3： We do not know the situation of cheating in other years. 或许作弊的人数有反复，并不能据此作出长期趋势的判断。

• Q4：针对学生调查，永远值得怀疑。这是不是学生中的大多数？是不是可以代表总体学生的心声？同时有没有确保学生可以在自己的隐私得到保护的情况下做问卷调查，是不是有其他的老师在场呢？调查者的立场也值得考量，是不是公正，客观。

• Q5：推广到其他高校，但是这个类推是不是正确合理？如果其他高校作弊并不是很严重，甚至没有是不是必须采用这种措施？同时，其他高校学生作弊的原因是不是和Groveton一样？不一样的话，Groveton做法的效用就值得仔细考量。The honor code may not be as same effective at other colleges and universities as it was at Grovetown.

• Q6：The author fails to illustrate that the number of cases of cheating at Groveton would be higher if we did not adopt the honor code. 如果不采用这样的方法是不是作弊人数就会上升呢？如果随着社会教育的提高，可能学生整体素质在提高。

• The author fails to consider the negative effects of adopting such honor codes and Other measures could be taken to combat cheating.

## 119

Evidence suggests that academic honor codes, which call for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated, are far more successful than are other methods at deterring cheating among students at colleges and universities. Several years ago, Groveton College adopted such a code and discontinued its old-fashioned system in which teachers closely monitored students. Under the old system, teachers reported an average of thirty cases of cheating per year. In the first year the honor code was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey, a majority of Groveton students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

• 作弊人数下降的解释：第一，学生自己监管较松，甚至互相包庇；第二，老师责任更小，很多时候不及时报告或者不愿意报告。

• 对于调查结果的解释：一些学生没有真是回答内心的想法，很可能因为自我监管对于他们作弊更加方便所以他们说了假话以希望这个制度可以延续下去。

• 对于这种监管方法更为成功的论证不是充分和可信的。

## 120

Several years ago, Groveton College adopted an honor code, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated. Groveton’s honor code replaced a system in which teachers closely monitored students. Under that system, teachers reported an average of thirty cases of cheating per year. The honor code has proven far more successful: in the first year it was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey, a majority of Groveton students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without. Such evidence suggests that all colleges and universities should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton’s. This change is sure to result in a dramatic decline in cheating among college students.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

## 138

The following appeared as an editorial in the student newspaper of Groveton College.

“To combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among college students, colleges and universities should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton’s, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated. Groveton’s honor code replaced an old-fashioned system in which teachers closely monitored students. Under that system, teachers reported an average of thirty cases of cheating per year. The honor code has proven far more successful: in the first year it was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey conducted by the Groveton honor council, a majority of students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

# 第21类

## 24

A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates （水杨酸）. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

• A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives.

• The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants.

• At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so.

• Q1：这项20年的调查是否觉有代表性？是否可以代表小镇居民的体质特征，是否考虑20年内的居民饮食，生活习惯，职业，年龄的变化，甚至居民的人口结构，社会阶层变化？

• Q2：这项研究的赞助者或者执行人是谁？是不是这些food-processing companies？研究者的客观、中立、专业性和可靠性必须有所保证。

• Q3：Salicylates may not have the same effect as aspirin in treating headaches although they are of the same chemical family.

• Q4：Other factors may also lead to the decline in the number of headaches in the study mentioned above. 比如人们生活水平的提高，医疗技术的发展，卫生保健的健全，甚至有可能气候变化，比如全球变暖可以带来影响。

• The author does not inform us what fraction of foods consumed by citizens of Mentia contains salicylates, and how many of the citizens prefer such kind of foods.

• The author fails to consider factors other than food, such as environment, lifestyle, etc. that may result in the increase in the number of headaches suffered by citizens of Mentia would increase .

• Granted that salicylates are effective in treating headaches, we cannot hastily infer that they would also be effective in preventing headaches.

• food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods这是一个仓促的行动，必须经过更加严格审核才可以确认是不是可以添加。

## 26

The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.

“Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades, food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

## 28

The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.

“Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades, food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

# 第22类

## 25

The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

“A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly,’ which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.” Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument. 论点：A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. 论据： • Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. • Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly,’ which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. • Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to$1,000 per year on jazz entertainment

• E1:常识中确实很少有人会舍近求远，但是对于Jazz Fans如果没有吸引人的歌手和节目，那么距离不是问题。他们追求的是更好的视听享受。所以需要证据证明本地俱乐部可以吸引Jazz Fans。同时这 65 miles away的距离对于Jazz Fans的交通工具来说话费的时间过于长久了。事实上，这个距离并不是特别的远大约是160公里的样子，普通汽车两个小时绝对可以。Granted that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, we cannot ensure that those jazz fans will attend the jazz club.

• E2：虽然提到 Monroe 的Jazz很popular但是还是需要更多的证据。比如，虽然有over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s annual jazz festival last summer，但是有多少本地人？占总人数的多少比例？其次需要历年数据对比，比如今年是十万人，但是往年如果是30万人的话，这反而说明Jazz的魅力和受欢迎程度在不断下降。

• E3： several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe 完全可以是因为环境好，不代表他们都会在Monroe表演。The mere fact that several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe lend no significant support to the applicant’s claim.

• E4：the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly’ 这需要对比其他节目的质量，同时评分最高不代表受众最广很有可能只有少数狂热者听，但是都给高分；另一个更广泛的节目，受众的平均给分比’Jazz Nightly’低。或者其他的节目很差劲，只有这个节目很好呢？所以恰好得到了高分。The popularity of Monroe’s annual jazz festival and of its nightly jazz radio show does not necessarily indicate that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe.
• E5：这项调查的实施人首先必须公正客观中立，没有收到相关利益方的支配。The result of the nationwide study could not ensure that Monroe residents are willing to spend much money on jazz entertainment.

• E6：全国性调查可以适用于 Monroe。

• E7：还要证明Jazz Fans的花费的很大的一部分是在俱乐部上而不是花在唱片或者自己去K歌上。即The arguer also does not inform us how much of the $1000 goes to club admission. • E8：即使Jazz很流行，Jazz Fans很多也很愿意付费，The scale of Monroe’s jazz market, and the profitability of the proposed club are open to doubt. 比如俱乐部是不是可以良好的经营下去？是不是可以有效地管理？有没有潜在的竞争对手？是不是还有其他节目会吸引大家的注意力？ ## 100 The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe. “Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly,’ which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to$1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, a jazz music club in Monroe would be tremendously profitable.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

## 102

The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

“Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly,’ which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, we predict that our new jazz music club in Monroe will be a tremendously profitable enterprise.” Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction. 同上 ## 164 The following was written by a group of developers in the city of Monroe. “A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from Monroe; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazz in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly.’ Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to$1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. We therefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

# 第23类

## 27

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.

“Commuters complain that increased rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway between the suburbs and the city center has doubled their commuting time. The favored proposal of the motorists’ lobby is to widen the highway, adding an additional lane of traffic. But last year’s addition of a lane to the nearby Green Highway was followed by a worsening of traffic jams on it. A better alternative is to add a bicycle lane to Blue Highway. Many area residents are keen bicyclists. A bicycle lane would encourage them to use bicycles to commute, and so would reduce rush-hour traffic rather than fostering an increase.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Commuters complain that increased rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway between the suburbs and the city center has doubled their commuting time. The favored proposal of the motorists’ lobby is to widen the highway, adding an additional lane of traffic.

• But last year’s addition of a lane to the nearby Green Highway was followed by a worsening of traffic jams on it.

• A better alternative is to add a bicycle lane to Blue Highway. Many area residents are keen bicyclists.

• 首先论据1中有两种人，一个是Commuters(上下班族)，一个是motorists（开车族）。是Commuters在抱怨交通拥堵，但是是Commuters本省既包含着motorists也包含这坐公共汽车上下班的人士，同时也包含其他工具比如骑自行车的人。而motorists提出的建议是增加汽车道的宽度，新增车道。但是乘坐公共汽车上下班的人是不是这么认为呢？他们可能希望设立公共汽车专用车道而不是花钱修建新的车道。这里有待疑问。

• E1：我们需要在Blue Highway上行驶的车辆的数据，比如有多少私家车，多少公共汽车，多少自行车，以及他们对于交通拥堵的影响。

• E2：我们需要讨论Green Highway和Blue Highway的可比性分析，比如是不是两者有相同的流量？两条公路的服务人口一样么？ 它们的维护状况一样么？

• E3：The increased traffic jams at Green Highway may result from other causes.

• E4：Problems emerged on Green Highway would not necessarily also take place on Blue Highway.

• E5： Many area residents are keen bicyclists.这个是谁的结论？是不是公正，客观反映了居民的整体意愿？We need to know how many of the avid bicyclists in Shady Village are using Blue Highway for commuting, and what percentage of the whole citizens here are avid bicyclists。

• E8：同时喜欢骑自行车不代表愿意骑自行车上下班或是从市中心和郊区来回跑。是不是很远？同时天气是不是允许呢，是不是一年四季都可以骑车上下班？The result of the recent survey does not indicate that those respondents will use bicycles for daily commuting.

• E7：The author fails to consider possible negative effects of building a bicycle lane.比如骑车的人太多会导致公路交通管理上的困难，骑自行车的人是不是遵守交通规则等。

• E8：在排除修建新的公路这个建议之前，我们至少该查明Green Highway失败的原因。才可以更加充分得在Blue highway中避免。

## 29

The following appeared in an editorial in a local newspaper.

“Commuters complain that increased rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway between the suburbs and the city center has doubled their commuting time. The favored proposal of the motorists’ lobby is to widen the highway, adding an additional lane of traffic. Opponents note that last year’s addition of a lane to the nearby Green Highway was followed by a worsening of traffic jams on it. Their suggested alternative proposal is adding a bicycle lane to Blue Highway. Many area residents are keen bicyclists. A bicycle lane would encourage them to use bicycles to commute, it is argued, thereby reducing rush-hour traffic.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

# 第24类

## 30

The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.

“The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year’s birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year’s birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, andthe adult population of the city to increase.

• we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities.

• E1：建议设立的基础就是关于城市出生率的统计数据。但是这个统计数据是谁作出的报告？是政府机关还是名见机构？研究的权威性和可信度也值得我们思考。

• E2：这个数据只是说last year’s birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago，并没有给出具体的数据同时没有给出这五年间人口的变化数据，所以我们无法判断人口出生率下降是长期趋势还是暂时的现象。比如去年有严重的水灾和旱灾等。

• E3：即使出生率确实下降，也不见得the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, andthe adult population of the city to increase。首先去年出生率下降，如果以6岁为开始上学的年龄那么至少6年后入学人数才会下降。其次，出生率下降，不一定就带来成年人人口数目的增加。虽然有可能使得成人的人口比例上升。同时无法保证未来会有其他的情况，比如疾病，移民，老年人口的死亡等，导致成年人数量下降。

• E4：we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade这是一个完全缺少支持的论断，首先必须保证未来十年人们的生育观念不会发生变化，国家不会推出鼓励生育的政策。同时，成年人也有接受教育的需求，减少预算不是减少了成人受教育的机会？

• E5： we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities 则必须保证成年人不会使用公共的健身设施，只有小孩使用。

# 第25类

## 31

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of Parson City’s local newspaper.

“In our region of Trillura, the majority of money spent on the schools that most students attend—the city-run public schools—comes from taxes that each city government collects. The region’s cities differ, however, in the budgetary priority they give to public education. For example, both as a proportion of its overall tax revenues and in absolute terms, Parson City has recently spent almost twice as much per year as Blue City has for its public schools—even though both cities have about the same number of residents. Clearly, Parson City residents place a higher value on providing a good education in public schools than Blue City residents do.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• In our region of Trillura, the majority of money spent on the schools that most students attend—the city-run public schools—comes from taxes that each city government collects.

• The region’s cities differ, however, in the budgetary priority they give to public education. For example, both as a proportion of its overall tax revenues and in absolute terms, Parson City has recently spent almost twice as much per year as Blue City has for its public schools—even though both cities have about the same number of residents.

• E1：文章引用了一个数据：In the region of Trillura, the majority of money spent on the schools that most students attend—the city-run public schools—comes from taxes that each city government collects. 那么首先这个调查数据是怎么的到？做调查的人是谁？其权威性和可靠性如何？

• E2： the majority of money 是个模糊的概念，到底多少是 the majority 有没有准确的数值区间，比如500万美元，或者每所学校的80%～90%.否则这个模糊的概念影响我们的判断。

• E3：虽然Parson City 比 Blue City 每年的教育预算高出了一倍，但是我们不知道以前两者投入的数目对比是怎么样子的。比如Blue City可能以前投入的资金很多现在其教育设施已经饱和了。而Parson City则是刚刚开始修建新的教育设施。

• E4：The city’s budget for its public schools is not an accurate indication of the value it places on public education. 事实上可以有其他更好的指标，比如政府对于教育的开放程度，教学大纲设计的科学性，对于学生创新能力的培养，对于学校教职员工的待遇和生活条件等。同时，即使是使用教育投资作为指标的话，绝对数量并没有太大的含义The author fails to inform us what fraction of the total budget are used for public schools in each city, thus we cannot evaluate which city cares more about public school education.

• E5：both cities have about the same number of residents是一个很模糊的论述。 We do not know the amount of students who go to public schools in the two cities, thus we could not evaluate the argument. 也就是我们不清楚适龄学生的人口数量，虽然城市人口总数一样。

• E6： Many other differences between Parson City and Blue City may also contribute to the differences in the amount of money they budget for their public schools.

• E7： Parson City residents place a higher value on providing a good education in public schools than Blue City residents do并没有直接证明。即使作者通篇的论述成立也只能论证两地政府对于教育的支持程度有所不同，但是不是居民。这里偷换概念。The amount of city budgets for public schools may not represent residents’ attitude towards public school education.

# 第26类

## 32

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Quiot Manufacturing.

“During the past year, Quiot Manufacturing had 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than at the nearby Panoply Industries plant, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts say that significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents are fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Quiot and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that employees will get adequate amounts of sleep.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• During the past year, Quiot Manufacturing had 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than at the nearby Panoply Industries plant, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours.

• Experts say that significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents are fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers.

• A1: The vice president of Quiot Manufacturing assumes that accidents are caused by fatigue or sleep deprivation. 但是可以有其他原因比如：员工有没有得到很好的安全保护；员工的技能特别是安全技能培训是否到位；工厂的安全检查是否严格；工人的操作是不是严格依照流程进行；员工的情绪和工作压力；企业的员工氛围等等。The vice president fails to consider possible differences between Quiot and Panoply which render them incomparable.

• A2：这些专家的意见值得信赖。但是这些专家的专业背景,学术水平，职业是不是符合这两家工厂所在的行业、生产环境、员工工作特点，从而值得相信意见？

• A3：这些专家的观点足够公正不受相关利益的驱使。

• A4：The president fails to consider that the per-worker accident rate might reveal that Quiot is actually safer than Panoply, depending on the total number of workers at each company.同时的不同也可以是Panoply的工人大量使用了机械化设备降低了人的参与度。使用的时候当然可以更少的事故率。

• A5：shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour to help employees get adequate amounts of sleep and increase productivity这个必须依赖于一：workers would use the additional hour of free time to sleep or rest is open to doubt；其次，其他影响上班时间事故的因素可以保持不变；最后，公司员工休息的时间不会降低总的生产量，影响Quiot的竞争力。

## 104

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a manufacturing company.

“During the past year, workers at our newly opened factory reported 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than workers at nearby Panoply Industries. Panoply produces products very similar to those produced at our factory, but its work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts say that fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers are significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents. Panoply’s superior safety record can therefore be attributed to its shorter work shifts, which allow its employees to get adequate amounts of rest.”

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

## 105

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of Butler Manufacturing.

“During the past year, workers at Butler Manufacturing reported 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than workers at nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. A recent government study reports that fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers are significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents. If we shorten each of our work shifts by one hour, we can improve Butler Manufacturing’s safety record by ensuring that our employees are adequately rested.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

## 106

The following appeared in a memo from the Board of Directors of Butler Manufacturing.

“During the past year, workers at Butler Manufacturing reported 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than workers at nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. A recent government study reports that fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers are significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents. Therefore, we recommend that Butler Manufacturing shorten each of its work shifts by one hour. Shorter shifts will allow Butler to improve its safety record by ensuring that its employees are adequately rested.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

## 167

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.

“During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many accidents is fatigue caused by sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta, we recommend shortening each of our three work shifts by one hour. If we do this, our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

# 第27类

## 33

The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.

“Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase—and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase—and may decline slightly

• Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary.

• Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy.

• At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago.

• Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating.

• 首先还是调查问题，必须假设调查是公正客观，准确充分，中立可信，同时调查者没有受到相关利益方的驱使。

• The author provides no evidence that homeowners who are eager to conserve energy would purchase and use those energy-efficient home appliances.

• We are not informed about the price of those energy-efficient home appliances and the cost of employing the new technologies, thus could not predict if residents could afford using them, and if they are willing to pay for these technologies.

• Many factors could lead to the increase in the demand for electricity in the future.比如全球变暖会带来越来越长的空调使用时间。

• the old plants might be less energy efficient than a new plant using new technology, or might have some negative effects on environment and economic.

• The author fails to rule out many possibilities which might render one or more additional generating plants necessary. 比如大量的移民人口或者城市人口持续增加；居民使用家电的需求不会进一步增加，比如不会出现新的家电增加用点需求，比如增湿器等。

• 同时new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available 这也要假设这些新的技术使用的成本不至于太高且可以大规模使用不会带来新的安全隐患。

# 第28类

## 34

The vice president of human resources at Climpson Industries sent the following recommendation to the company’s president.

“In an effort to improve our employees’ productivity, we should implement electronic monitoring of employees’ Internet use from their workstations. Employees who use the Internet from their workstations need to be identified and punished if we are to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities, such as shopping or playing games. By installing software to detect employees’ Internet use on company computers, we can prevent employees from wasting time, foster a better work ethic at Climpson, and improve our overall profits.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Employees who use the Internet from their workstations need to be identified and punished if we are to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities, such as shopping or playing games.

• By installing software to detect employees’ Internet use on company computers, we can prevent employees from wasting time, foster a better work ethic at Climpson, and improve our overall profits.

• The vice president fails to provide any information about current performance and productivity of our employees, thus the assumption that their productivity should be and could be improved is open to doubt.也就是必须假设现在的员工有上班玩游戏和购物的情形，否则没有必要安装软件。

• The vice president unfairly assumes that most of our employees use internet for personal or recreational activities. 必须区分使用Internet是自己消遣还是为公司工作，这一点有时候很难界定。

• 假设安装软件没有侵犯员工个人隐私而且合乎法律规定。

• 假设员工没有有效手段反监控。即监控可以有效进行。

• Employees could still spend much time on personal or recreational activities even though the Internet access is banned.

• The vice president overlooks the negative effects of the proposed activity on employees’ morale, thus the better work ethic mentioned above is not guaranteed. 安装监控软件破坏了公司和员工之间的相互信任，同时削弱了归属感，同时监控员工可能会降低他们对于公司的感情，破坏公司工作效率。

• The vice president fails to consider possible negative effects of installing such software on the performance of computers, and fails to provide the cost of installing the software.

• Since Climpson’s profits would be determined by many factors, adopting the proposal may not sufficiently ensure greater profits.可以使用很多的方法，比如帮助员工进行时间管理，改善业绩考核办法，增加员工归属感，在公司内部开展有趣的活动等等。

## 58

The vice president for human resources at Climpson Industries sent the following recommendation to the company’s president.

“In an effort to improve our employees’ productivity, we should implement electronic monitoring of employees’ Internet use from their workstations. Employees who use the Internet inappropriately from their workstations need to be identified and punished if we are to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities, such as shopping or playing games. Installing software on company computers to detect employees’ Internet use is the best way to prevent employees from wasting time on the job. It will foster a better work ethic at Climpson and improve our overall profits.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

## 94

The vice president of human resources at Climpson Industries sent the following recommendation to the company’s president.

“A recent national survey found that the majority of workers with access to the Internet at work had used company computers for personal or recreational activities, such as banking or playing games. In an effort to improve our employees’ productivity, we should implement electronic monitoring of employees’ Internet use from their workstations. Using electronic monitoring software is the best way to reduce the number of hours Climpson employees spend on personal or recreational activities. We predict that installing software to monitor employees’ Internet use will allow us to prevent employees from wasting time, thereby increasing productivity and improving overall profits.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

# 第29类

## 35

The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex to its manager.

“One month ago, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers complex were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. I predict that modifying showerheads to restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex will increase our profits even more dramatically.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

• One month ago, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers complex were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be.

• Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month.

• Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment.

1. The modification was taken place only one month ago, thus many negative effects might not have emerged yet. 一个月的情况是不是可以代表全年，比如冬天的洗澡频率低于夏天。同时如果他们选择去公共浴室的话，那么数据更加不可靠。

2. 作者同时有一个假设就是这前面三栋用户可以代表后面的所有用户。这三栋楼具有足够的代表性所以可以把在这些楼的做法向所有12栋推广。但是这三栋居民的人数，沐浴习惯可以代表全体住户么？3. Without any actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment we cannot evaluate if the modification could actually save water.比如住户延长了洗澡时间，那么很难判断用水量的多少。同时，我们必须知道更换showerheads的话费和公司在水费上支持的大小，如果公司的水费开支极小的话，那么所谓的可以节省大量资金就不成立。

3. The fact that a few people complained about water pressure does not necessarily indicate that all other clients are satisfied with the modification.

4. The owner hastily assumes that the restricting on water flow could be successfully carried out to all otherbuildings of Sunnyside Tower. 比如他们会不会搬走，或者因为水太小而私自改装 showerheads 。

## 52

The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment building to its manager.

“One month ago, all the showerheads on the first five floors of Sunnyside Towers were modified to restrict the water flow to approximately one-third of its original flow. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, restricting water flow throughout all the twenty floors of Sunnyside Towers will increase our profits further.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

## 128

he following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex to its manager.

“One month ago, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers complex were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, modifying showerheads to restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex will increase our profits further.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

## 129

The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex to its manager.

“Last week, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers complex were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, modifying showerheads to restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex will increase our profits further.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

# 第30类

## 36

The following report appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

“An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds represent the most frequently given reason for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid—a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil—as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds.

• Since colds represent the most frequently given reason for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid—a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil—as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.

• E1:A study 等同与调查的问题，所以必须查明调查是否中立，实施过程是不是合理，调查实施方是不是收到利益团体的驱动。

• E2：The fact that people in East Meria rarely visit doctor for the treatment of colds does not indicate a low incidence of colds. 还要证明他们不是对于感冒这些小病不是自己在家治疗或者自我恢复的。其次不是因为感冒去看医生，是不是经常因为其他的原因去看医生呢？也就是说多食用鱼或者其他的什么的是不是会带来易患其他的疾病？这需要证据排除，或者给出就医情况的全面数据。

• E3：The author fails to establish a causal relationship between high level of fish consumption and the low incidence of cold in East Meria. 即我们不明确是不是吃鱼带来的感冒少。或者East Meria的居民生活方式更加健康，环境污染更少，更加注意锻炼休息，或者East Meria人口结构更加年轻，生病的人数自然会少一些。

• E4：The condition in East and West Meria may not be comparable.所以作者需要证明这两者的可比较性，他们的经济水平相当，环境气候一致，没有什么大的不同。

• E5：We need to know how many absences from school and work were actually caused by colds. 也就是 West Meria 的缺席现象是由于感冒引起的。而不仅仅是有可能用来搪塞的借口。

• E5：同时作者需要说明eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds中的a substantial amount of fish是多少，多少条鱼算够，推荐用量是多少。鱼的烹饪方法是不是有影响？还有鱼的种类是不是有影响？

• E6：Ichthaid may not have the same function in preventing colds as has eating fish.作者对于论证说的是East Meria居民吃鱼的好处，但是推荐的Ichthaid。即使Ichthaid是a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil，但是光是鱼油的提炼物会不会和鱼肉有什么不同？同时还需要给出每天的用量，这些用量是不是科学呢？是不是没有什么毒副作用呢？

• E7：同时作者需要证明大家都可以负担这些营养品的费用。The author does not inform us the cost, and any possible side effects of Ichtahaid.

• E8：同时需要证明这种提炼物或者多食用这种鱼类不会因为感冒病毒的变异，或者气候的变化等等外部因素失去作用；也就是他们的效用是长期而且可靠的。

## 163

The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

“An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where consumption of the plant beneficia is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of beneficia can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of nutritional supplements derived from beneficia. We predict this will dramatically reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

## 166

The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

“An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. This shows that eating a substantial amount of fish can clearly prevent colds. Furthermore, since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, attendance levels will improve. Therefore, we recommend the daily use of a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

# 第31类

## 37

The following appeared in a recommendation from the planning department of the city of Transopolis.

“Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased. To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a declining residential area on the opposite side of the city. Since some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased.

• Since some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available.

• E1： The author unfairly assumes that the prosperity of the area results from the industrialization. 比如很有可能这段时间国家的经济整体形式很好，所以社会就业充分，自然犯罪率会下降而资产税会上升。

• E2：The author fails to demonstrate that the residential area on the opposite side of the city is suitable for industrial use.

• E3：这些居民愿意搬迁，同时接纳地区的居民愿意接纳这些移民。否则容易造成社会的动荡。同时搬迁居民必然牵涉到配套设施的规划，比如学校，医院，养老院，购物中心，道路交通，垃圾中转设施的布局容量是不是合理，公共资源和服务可以满足新增的需求。最后是就业岗位的安排，是不是可以完全接纳的关键。The author fails to consider if the residents of the area are willing to be allocated to those houses and apartments.

• E4： The two areas may not be comparable at many aspects, thus taking similar action in the area may not generate the same good effects. What’s more, The author fails to substantiate the necessity of adapt more area for industrial use.

• E5：Many factors that would influence the effectiveness of the action would have changed during the past decade. 十年前的政策，现在是不是依然可以成功呢？

• E6：Other possible solutions could also be used to revitalize the city.

• E7：The author fails to consider the cost of the proposed action, and if the city could afford it.

# 第32类

## 38

The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men’s clothing.

“Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• We should resume production of our alpaca overcoat.

• This coat should sell very well.

• Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier

• since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand.

• since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase.

• The author fails to substantiate the assumption that the new fabric sup­plier will be a reliable supplier of alpaca, and fails to provide any information about the quality of the fabric they supply.也就是没有证明新的fabric sup­plie可以代替原来的面料，同时也可以生产出同样档次的产品。

• 即使这种产品质量和五年前一样，但是The author fails to consider the possible cost of resuming production也就是我们是不是还需要购置新的机器或者改造生产线；工人是不是要重新培训？这些都需要证据。

• Other factors may change during the past five years. 比如流行的风向是不是改变，消费者是不是还会喜欢alpaca overcoat。至少需要提供消费者关于alpaca overcoat的印象调查和消费者的购买意愿。

• The assumption that consumers will be willing to pay significant higher prices for alpaca overcoats is unwarranted.

• 同时需要假设alpaca overcoat上市后，没有其他厂商不会跟进生产同类产品来和alpaca overcoat竞争才可以保证高利润。The memo’s claim that the company’s overall profits would increase thereby is unwar­ranted.

• 同时如果alpaca overcoat真的有巨大的需求的话，同类型厂商五年内都没有生产alpaca overcoat来填补市场，如果不是技术原因，这不是很好说明alpaca overcoat没有巨大的需求么？

## 95

The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men’s clothing.

“Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. This demand and the overall increase in clothing prices will make Sartorian’s alpaca overcoats more profitable than ever before.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

## 96

The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men’s clothing.

“Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. Due to this demand and the overall increase in clothing prices, we can predict that Sartorian’s alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

# 第33类

## 39

A recent sales study indicates that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent during the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants whose specialty is seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about healthful eating. Therefore, the new Captain Seafood restaurant that specializes in seafood should be quite popular and profitable.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• A recent sales study indicates that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent during the past five years.

• Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants whose specialty is seafood.

• Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about healthful eating.

• 调查是首先怀疑的。调查者是谁？中立，客观，公正，没有利益瓜葛；同时专业水平和素养值得信赖。调查方案的设计是否科学没有倾向性。同时实施的过程严格依照相关的程序规定进行。

• 其次，The 30% increase might be insignificant because we do not know the base amount of seafood consumption in Bay City. 比如原来的海鲜消费很低，那么即使有很大的30%的提高那么其实也不是很多的海鲜消费。

• 同时没有告诉我们同期其他食物种类增加数量的比较。比如其他产品消耗量比海鲜大，同时增加幅度还比海鲜多，那么我们不能够得出海鲜产品可以盈利。

• The past current does not necessarily indicate that seafood consumption will continue to increase in the future.

• The increase in consumption of seafood dishes in normal restaurant does not indicate that a restaurant specializing in seafood will be profitable.也就是没有说明为什么Bay City没有海鲜专营餐馆的问题。这个市场空白是不是由于一些不可抗拒因素？是不是当地的气候不适合长期食用海鲜产品？是不是当地没有及时和新鲜的海鲜原料供应？

• The nationwide study showing trends among two-income families toward dining out and eating healthily does not necessarily apply to Bay City.

• Without any detailed data concerning the number of home-cooked meals these two-income families eat currently and formerly, and without knowing the actual level of their concern about eating healthily, we cannot evaluate if these families are a key factor in determining the profitability of a restaurant specializing in seafood. Other families may eat even fewer home-cooked meals and are concerned more about eating healthily.所以The fact that two-income families eat fewer home-cooked meals may lead to the popularity of catering services, delivered meals, but not necessarily that of a 海鲜 restaurant.

• The fact that two-income families express more concern about eating healthily does not indicate that they will necessarily patronize a new seafood restaurant. 也就是说，双职工家庭不一定把这家海鲜餐馆视为健康饮食的地方。

• The argument fails to provide any information about the expense of establishing such a restaurant.也就是没有说明建海鲜餐馆的成本问题。

## 174

A recent sales study indicates that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent during the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants whose specialty is seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about healthful eating. Therefore, the new Captain Seafood restaurant that specializes in seafood should be quite popular and profitable.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be addressed in order to decide whether the conclusion and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to the questions would help to evaluate the conclusion.

# 第34类

## 40

Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium—substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore say that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors and that causes the bones to weaken significantly with age. But a long-term study of a large number of people found that those who consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are symptomatic of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• a long-term study of a large number of people found that those who consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study.

• Bone fractures are symptomatic of osteoporosis

• 首先还是调查。我们需要进一步的数据证明这些调查的方案设计(比如调查样本的抽取，调查方法的选择，调查数据的处理和验证)以及调查过程的实施这些都是科学与合理的。其次，我们必须保证结论是客观公正的。调查者的专业资质可靠，同时没有相关的利益瓜葛。

• 同时调查给出的数据很模糊，a long-term是多少年？a large number of people是多少人。同时这些人是不是具有足够的代表性。他们饮食，年龄，生活环境，作息习惯没有特别的倾向。

• The author does not provide detailed information about the studied people who consistently consume dairy products and those who do not.即作者没有设置严格的对照组。虽然those who consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study，但是如果可以有更严格的对照组比如没有喝过奶制品的人作为对照，那么结果将更加可信。

• Although bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, they may well result from other causes. Other reasons, such as aging, genetic factors, lifestyle, etc. may also account for the higher rate of bone fractures of the people mentioned in the study.

• 同时，对于文中观点所说的这种病症osteoporosis能不能简单通过Bone fractures来进行诊断呢？我们可以使用其它更加可靠的方法来确认。而不是只通过一个症状来确定。

# 第35类

## 41

The following appeared in a health newsletter.

“A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result.

• Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets.

• A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent.

• Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent.

• 有调查存在，所以必然写调查类的问题。首先，作者必须假设这些调查都是公正的。其次假设调查的方法，取样，数据处理，结果的核实和验证都是可靠的。实施者没有任何偏颇之处。

• 作者的论据强调了因为戴了头盔所以松懈大意导致事故数反而升高了。这必须假设：

• 现在的安全帽和过去一样，才可以类比。如果说安全帽的质量出现了大的下滑，原来用的是红色醒目的安全帽，现在却使用了不醒目颜色的安全帽。

• 没有其他因素导致安全事故。比如：现在自行车设计的缺陷增多了；自行车驾驶者的数量增加；没有足够的自行车道路；机动车数量激增；行人和车手不遵守交通规则；交通管理和规划的不合理。

• 即使我们知道安全事故很多，但是还是无法支持论点2的合理性。也就是作者必须假定：安全教育可以改善自行车手的安全意识并且安全意识提高可以发挥减少交通事故作用；人们可以在这些教育发挥作用的同时坚持下去，而不会荒废；同时自行车也会是主要交通工具而不会出现因为使用自行车的人的减少导致的事故数的减少。

## 123

The following appeared in a health newsletter.

“A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus, there is clearly a call for the government to strive to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents by launching an education program that concentrates on the factors other than helmet use that are necessary for bicycle safety.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent.

• Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent.

## 125

The following appeared in a health newsletter.

“A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus there is clearly a call for the government to strive to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents by launching an education program that concentrates on the factors other than helmet use that are necessary for bicycle safety.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

# 第36类

## 42

The following is a letter to the head of the tourism bureau on the island of Tria.

“Erosion of beach sand along the shores of Tria Island is a serious threat to our island and our tourist industry. In order to stop the erosion, we should charge people for using the beaches. Although this solution may annoy a few tourists in the short term, it will raise money for replenishing the sand. Replenishing the sand, as was done to protect buildings on the nearby island of Batia, will help protect buildings along our shores, thereby reducing these buildings’ risk of additional damage from severe storms. And since beaches and buildings in the area will be preserved, Tria’s tourist industry will improve over the long term.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Erosion of beach sand along the shores of Tria Island is a serious threat to our island and our tourist industry.

• Although this solution may annoy a few tourists in the short term, it will raise money for replenishing the sand.

• Replenishing the sand, as was done to protect buildings on the nearby island of Batia, will help protect buildings along our shores, thereby reducing these buildings’ risk of additional damage from severe storms.

• And since beaches and buildings in the area will be preserved, Tria’s tourist industry will improve over the long term.

• 论据1指明岛上的沙子流失严重，作者必须提供证据是谁得到的这个结论，怎么知道沙子流失严重的。如果是调查得到的结论则需要指明调查者是可靠权威的相关领域专家。同时他们的方法是科学合理的，做出的结论是公正的，没有受到想过利益方的影响。

• 论据 2告诉我们有部分游客会不满，那么作者需要给出更多的证据指明大部分游客不会因为这项政策而不来了。也就是大部分游客还会来沙滩游玩不至于受到新增收费的影响。比如作者可以提供一个对于游客的问卷意向调查等。

• 论据3的类比，必须提供说明，Batia岛和Tria岛是可以类比的。它们的海洋环境，沙滩构成，海潮冲击力这些都是可以类比。同时，如果是修补建筑的话，也必须证明Batia岛和Tria岛的建筑是类似的，可以利用文中提到的技术进行修补，可以顶住海风和雨水的侵蚀。也就是这些楼本身值得我们修补。

• 论据4说明如果楼房好那么旅游业会好。这也需要证据：比如没有其他 不利因素的存在，如经济环境不会有萧条，旅游客不会减少；附近的岛屿不会与Tria岛竞争；旅游项目可以保持良好的效果。

# 第37类

## 43

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the chairperson of the West Egg Town Council.

“Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg’s landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town’s residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of recycled material—which includes paper, plastic, and metal—should further increase, since charges for pickup of other household garbage will double. Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our town’s strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg’s landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town’s residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years.

• Next month the amount of recycled material—which includes paper, plastic, and metal—should further increase, since charges for pickup of other household garbage will double.

• Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future.

• More and more residents in our town will make strong commitment to recycling

• 文中使用了大量的调查数据，这些数据的得到必须基于调查研究。所以他们必定需要证明这些数据是使用可靠地方法得到的，这些数据的处理是科学合理的。实现这些数据调查的人士中立，客观的。

• 其次，即使这些数据都是真是的，我们依然需要证明两年前居民回收垃圾的数量就很多，只有这样才可以说明：200%的增加是可以为减少占用垃圾场做出贡献度。

• 论据2使用了，常识性论证的假设：那就是提高收垃圾的费用，会刺激人们回收垃圾以减少垃圾数量，降低生活开销。但是这建立在以下假设的基础上：

• 原来的收垃圾费用倍增后，可以让居民显著改变生活成本。从而促使他们有动力改变生活成本。

• 同时必须指明recycled material—which includes paper, plastic, and metal和将要增加the pickup of other household garbage在垃圾中所占的比例。也就是说这样费用的增加可以改变垃圾的数量。如果其他类别的垃圾过少那么这个政策的可靠性事实上存疑。

• 同时下个月可回收垃圾数量增加，这是一个趋势，我们需要知道这个趋势可以延续多久。会不会因为个别原因导致这个趋势无法延续？

• 论据3，同样是调查。但是这个调查的结果需要证据支持是具有代表性的居民，被调查者真实反映了自己的想法。同时在居民有意愿的基础上需要知道他们是不是拥有这样的能力，也就是居民是不是有条件妥善合理地分类垃圾。

• 同时这些都成立也无法保证垃圾填埋场的数量。比如，我们需要知道是不是会有大量的移民进入导致垃圾数量增加占用填埋设施。或者填埋场管理不善导致实际使用中损失了大量的可用空间？

# 第38类

## 44

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a journal on environmental issues.

“Over the past year, the Crust Copper Company (CCC) has purchased over 10,000 square miles of land in the tropical nation of West Fredonia. Mining copper on this land will inevitably result in pollution and, since West Fredonia is the home of several endangered animal species, in environmental disaster. But such disasters can be prevented if consumers simply refuse to purchase products that are made with CCC’s copper unless the company abandons its mining plans.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Over the past year, the Crust Copper Company (CCC) has purchased over 10,000 square miles of land in the tropical nation of West Fredonia.

• Mining copper on this land will inevitably result in pollution and, since West Fredonia is the home of several endangered animal species, in environmental disaster.

• But such disasters can be prevented if consumers simply refuse to purchase products that are made with CCC’s copper unless the company abandons its mining plans.

• 假设1：CCC公司买地就是为了开发铜矿。如果CCC为了提高自己的形象，从而对所买土地实施保护呢？或者CCC公司是为了转型发展，准备开发旅游产业呢？同时假设了CCC买的土地上必须有铜矿，而这个并没有实际证据的支持。

• 假设2：CCC公司的开矿必然导致污染。但是如果CCC实施严格的环保措施，或者CCC有先进的工艺使得污染可以减轻很多呢？

• uch disasters can be prevented if consumers simply refuse to purchase products that are made with CCC’s copper 这是市场集体抵制行为(boycott)，结构如下：

• 大前提：集体的市场抵制会是公司放弃不利于环境的生产计划

• 小前提：消费者不买CCC的产品是有效地市场集体抵制行为

• 结论：CCC公司会放弃开采计划

• 所需要的假设如下：

• 人们可以很容易地识别CCC的产品

• 人们可以统一的采取行动即都愿意加入到抵制计划中去

• 该抵制计划不会额外产生大量的失业，也就是不会让人们因为成本过高而放弃

• 同时，必须保证不会有其他公司代替CCC开发不然这项集体抵制计划实际上没有任何作用。

# 第39类

## 45

The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.

“Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit. To address these problems, Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni. We predict that instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total enrollment and solve its budget problems.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

• Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni.

• instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total enrollment and solve its budget problems.

• Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet.

• In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit.

• We do not know the actual number of students who enrolled in long-distance program at Omni University last year, thus the 50% increase might be insignificant.

• 同时我们需要其他大学的例子来支持Omni的例子不是个例。也说明50%的增长是值得我们效法的，比如其他大学如果人数比Omni更多，增长更大，那么我们是不是该学习另外的学校呢？

• 我们需要更详细的第三方机构做出的关于网上教学和传统教学影响或者说效果的对比及相关的数据而不是简单地比照几所大学的例子。

• We do not know the total number of enrollment, and actual tuition income at Omni last year.

• Other factors may well explain the decrease in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space at Omni.比如，Omni大学是不是因为传统住校人数过少而不得不通过网上教学吧来维持学校呢？

• Possibly Omni and Humana are not comparable at many aspects. 比如这两所学校的教学项目，教学年龄段的人口数（是不是老年大学？），经济发展水平。

• The president does not provide any information about the cost and any possible requirements of installing such a program. 同时也没有说明Humana的赤字是什么原因导致的。如果是因为工资水平的普遍上涨或者通货膨胀那么改变教学事实上的作用有多大呢？

• The president overlooks other methods that could be applied to solve the problem.

## 49

The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.

“Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because online instruction takes place via the Internet. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana University, we should initiate and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

# 第40类

## 46

The following appeared in a health magazine published in Corpora.

“Medical experts say that only one-quarter of Corpora’s citizens meet the current standards for adequate physical fitness, even though twenty years ago, one-half of all of Corpora’s citizens met the standards as then defined. But these experts are mistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness. Since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year’s unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• But these experts are mistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness

• he recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does.

• Since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit.

• as shown by this year’s unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause

• 作者使用逆否命题的方法：如果专家：that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness的观点对的，那么逆否就是：高健康的区域可以看到低的使用电脑的时间。现在真实存在的情形是overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest，所以作者说专家的观点错误了。

• 但是如果说不是电脑导致了体质下降，基于以下假设：拥有电脑多的人使用电脑的时间也长。但是这个是不一定的，有人因为专业原因比如在家修电脑。或者是一个很自律的人，使用电脑的时间不一定很长。这样才可以把作者说的真实中某地拥有电脑率的多和使用电脑时间联系起来，才可以反驳专家观点。High levels of computer ownership do not indicate that citizens of these regions will spend more time on using computers.

• 作者说recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause of decrease in fitness levels。这个观点也需要证据，也就是假设不存在其他原因比如：居民生活节奏的变化，人口结构的改变，外来移民变化。同时，即使是经济下滑，也不一定是：this year’s unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services导致体质下降。可能是环境的恶化，气候的变迁，青壮年的大量移出，或者人们对于保健品有疑虑等。The low expenditures on fitness-related products and services may not directly result in low level of fitness. The low expenditures on fitness-related products do not necessarily resulted from the decline in the economy.

• 小错误：The standard for fitness may vary during past 20 years.

• Although the regions mentioned by the author have relatively highest fitness levels, it is still possible that their fitness levels are declining compared with themselves.

• The author fails to convince us that once the economy improves, people will spend more money on fitness-related products and services, and their fitness levels will therefore be improved.

# 第41类

## 47

The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Movies Galore, a chain of movie-rental stores.

“Because of declining profits, we must reduce operating expenses at Movies Galore’s ten movie-rental stores. Raising prices is not a good option, since we are famous for our low prices. Instead, we should reduce our operating hours. Last month our store in downtown Marston reduced its hours by closing at 6:00 p.m. rather than 9:00 p.m. and reduced its overall inventory by no longer stocking any DVD released more than five years ago. Since we have received very few customer complaints about these new policies, we should now adopt them at all other Movies Galore stores as our best strategies for improving profits.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Raising prices is not a good option, since we are famous for our low prices.

• Last month our store in downtown Marston reduced its hours by closing at 6:00 p.m. rather than 9:00 p.m. and reduced its overall inventory by no longer stocking any DVD released more than five years ago. Since we have received very few customer complaints about these new policies

• The owner fails to sufficiently illustrate that why raising prices would not be a good solution for improving profits. 比如我们需要知道3个小时的运营成本在和获得的利润相比较。其次，我们需要知道竞争对手的情况才可以决定是不是将这项政策推向更多的店铺。其次作者人为限定可选择方法，难道不可以涨价就没有其他方法？比如，降低工资，强调节约意识。There are many other possible measures we can adopt to improve profits.

• The owner fails to provide any information concerning the possible change in the profit of the store in Marston after the policies were adopted, thus we cannot evaluate if we should adopt them at all other stores.

• The fact that few customer complaints were received does not indicate that most customers are satisfied with these policies.

• The new policies were implemented only one month ago, the situation of this month might not be representative of that of the whole year, or the negative effects might not have emerged yet.

• The success of the new policies at one store does not ensure that adopting them would necessarily be successful at all other Armchair stores.

• The owner fails to consider many negative effects of the new policies.比如，减少库存可能让很多顾客认为选择过少而不来光顾。同时，新的时间可能不是顾客最最方便的时间，比如不是顾客下班后的时间，也就是说可以减少时间。但是如何安排减少后的时间，需要科学规划。 注意：in downtown Marston 这个特殊的地点。不是任何地方都可以成为downtown的。

## 111

The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Movies Galore, a chain of movie-rental stores.

“In order to stop the recent decline in our profits, we must reduce operating expenses at Movies Galore’s ten movie-rental stores. Since we are famous for our special bargains, raising our rental prices is not a viable way to improve profits. Last month our store in downtown Marston significantly decreased its operating expenses by closing at 6:00 P.M. rather than 9:00 P.M. and by reducing its stock by eliminating all movies released more than five years ago. By implementing similar changes in our other stores, Movies Galore can increase profits without jeopardizing our reputation for offering great movies at low prices.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• By implementing similar changes in our other stores, Movies Galore can increase profits但是没有给出这个significantly到底是多少。The owner fails to provide any information concerning the possible change in the profit of the store in Marston after the policies were adopted, thus we cannot evaluate if we should adopt them at all other stores.

## 112

112.The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Movies Galore, a chain of movie-rental stores.

“In order to reverse the recent decline in our profits, we must reduce operating expenses at Movies Galore’s ten movie-rental stores. Since we are famous for our special bargains, raising our rental prices is not a viable way to improve profits. Last month our store in downtown Marston significantly decreased its operating expenses by closing at 6:00 p.m. rather than 9:00 p.m. and by reducing its stock by eliminating all movies released more than five years ago. Therefore, in order to increase profits without jeopardizing our reputation for offering great movies at low prices, we recommend implementing similar changes in our other nine Movies Galore stores.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• By implementing similar changes in our other stores, Movies Galore can increase profits但是没有给出这个significantly到底是多少。The owner fails to provide any information concerning the possible change in the profit of the store in Marston after the policies were adopted, thus we cannot evaluate if we should adopt them at all other stores.

# 第42类

## 48

The following appeared in a magazine article about planning for retirement.

“Clearview should be a top choice for anyone seeking a place to retire, because it has spectacular natural beauty and a consistent climate. Another advantage is that housing costs in Clearview have fallen significantly during the past year, and taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns. Moreover, Clearview’s mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and public services. And best of all, retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they grow older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national average.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• it has spectacular natural beauty and a consistent climate.

• housing costs in Clearview have fallen significantly during the past year, and taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns.

• Clearview’s mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and public services.

• retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they grow older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national average.

• it has spectacular natural beauty and a consistent climate.并不能说明气候适合老年人生活。比如：沙漠的气候也可以由壮美的景色(沙海)，稳定的气候(酷热)。

• The variation in the housing costs does not indicate that Clearview has advantage in housing costs. 我们要知道低到何种程度是不是适合老年人的退休金。We need to know the average real estate taxes of the whole nation, non-neighboring cities might enjoy even lower real estate taxes.

• We do not know other conditions in Clearview which would influence retirees’ decisions, such as commodity price, transportation, etc.

• We cannot guarantee that housing costs in Clearview will not increase in the future.

• We do not know if the mayor can keep his promise, and how long does it take to finish those improvements. The mayor’s promise might just indicate that those facilities are in bad condition now.

• The number of physicians does not necessarily indicate the quality of health care.这知道单一的physicians 内科医生不代表全部的各个种类的医生很多。

• Although the number of physicians in Clearview is relatively high, the per capita number might be relatively low.其次要知道这些一生的医术和受教育 程度。如果单单考察医疗条件可以看看死亡率，医疗事故比例等。

# 第43类

## 50

An ancient, traditional remedy for insomnia—the scent of lavender flowers—has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored electronically. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. At the beginning of the second week, the volunteers discontinued their sleeping medication. During that week, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. Therefore, the study proves that lavender cures insomnia within a short period of time.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored electronically. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired.

• At the beginning of the second week, the volunteers discontinued their sleeping medication. During that week, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired.

• During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks.

• 30 volunteers are too small a sample that can hardly be representative. We do not have any detailed information about the 30 volunteers, e.g. the severity of their insomnia, their physique, etc., thus we could not evaluate if they are representative. The author does not inform us about the volunteers’ sleep patterns prior to the experiment. (

• How soundly or long a person sleeps, or how tired a person feels after sleep, is irrelevant to whether the person suffers from insomnia. 同时我们无法从患者的反馈中客观设立soundly or long a person sleeps的标准，这个怎么测量？

• The study fails to inform us how the volunteers felt after sleep during the third week, thus we could not evaluate the actual effect of lavender flowers on sleep. 也就是说，前两周有效不代表第三周有效，说不定只是治标，或者两周有效，第三周反而更加严重了。

• 正确的实验设计必须含有对照组：The study should include another group of people who do not sleep on such pillows as counterparts.

• Granted that the volunteer’s sleep was improved through the three weeks, we cannot ensure it is the lavender that caused the result, other factors could also account for the improvement.比如心里暗示作用。

• The author cannot hastily conclude that the volunteers’ insomnia has been thoroughly cured without any follow-up studies.

# 第44类

## 53

The following appeared in a health magazine.

“The citizens of Forsythe have adopted more healthful lifestyles. Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago. Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol. This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of the most healthy citizens regularly eat.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago.

• Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol.

• This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of the most healthy citizens regularly eat.

• The reliability of the recent survey is open to doubt, who responded? The number of respondents? 被采访者是不是因为从众心理或者怕他人嘲笑而说谎？

• 政府的健康计划也需要更多的证据支持The government nutritional recommendations do not necessarily represent standards of healthy lifestyles 。因为说不定政府的计划只是为了保证每个人的营养吸收设立了最低标准。同时The government nutritional recommendations may have changed during the past decade. 所以10年前的计划和10年后的计划是不是可以对比呢？

• The increase in sales of food products containing kiran does not necessarily indicate that the citizens are leading healthier lives, people may purchase these food products for other reasons.比如经济下滑，人们不得不吃含着个营养素的便宜食物。同时，作者没有提供吃这些食物的是少数人还是多数人。如果是少数人买了很多那也不代表什么。其次，作者没有说明是不是有很多的移民进入，如果这样的话，销量确实会上升但是不代表居民使用的比例上升。所以事实上没有任何影响。至少需要其他营养食物的比如，含有Vitamin，Calcium，Unsaturated Fatty acid等食物的销量。如果他们销量增加20或者总量远远超过Kiran事实上，Kiran的作用也就被削弱了。

• 同时sulia, a food that few of the most healthy citizens regularly eat。最健康的人很少吃不代表不健康。所以需要更多独立科研机构的权威数据论证。The fact that few of the healthiest citizens regularly eat sulia does not demonstrate that sulia is unhealthy.

• 减少sulia的食用量，也有可能是因为环境改变sulia的常量减少了。现在很难买到或者需要从别的地方进口，太贵了都是可能的原因。

• 作者文章中使用归纳推理的方法。说明居民饮食习惯健康了，从而推论他们的生活习惯更健康，这里错误假设了饮食习惯代表生活习惯。但是The author ignores many other factors that could be used to evaluate if people are having healthier lives. 比如这里的居民运动习惯如何？文娱活动多么？他们生活节奏怎么样？生态环境有没有污染。社会心态等等。

## 144

The citizens of Forsythe have adopted more healthful lifestyles. Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago. Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol. This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of the healthiest citizens regularly eat.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

## 151

Benton City residents have adopted healthier lifestyles. A recent survey of city residents shows that the eating habits of city residents conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago. During those ten years, local sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol, have increased fourfold, while sales of sulia, a food rarely eaten by the healthiest residents, have declined dramatically. Because of these positive changes in the eating habits of Benton City residents, we predict that the obesity rate in the city will soon be well below the national average.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

# 第45类

## 54

Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands had become extinct. Yet humans cannot have been a factor in the species’ extinctions, because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Therefore, some climate change or other environmental factor must have caused the species’ extinctions.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals.

• Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals.

• 论据1的具体过程如下：

• 大前提：如果人类导致灭绝，人类该有和此类动物密切接触的痕迹

• 小前提：没有痕迹

• 结论：人类不会导致动物灭绝

• 论据2的推理如下：

• 大前提：如果人类猎杀了动物，动物的骨头该可以找到

• 小前提：没有找到骨头

• 结论：人类不会猎杀动物

• 综合以上结果作者说不是人导致此类动物灭绝。

• 作者论据1的大前提有问题。The argument treats a lack of proof that if humans might be responsible for the extinctions ，then there must the evidence that showing significant contact between humans and the mammals.

• The fact that no evidence showing significant contact between humans and the mammals has been found does not sufficiently prove that there was no any such contact at all.

• Even if humans had no significant contact with mammals, human activities might cause negative effects on mammals in different ways, thus human activities might have caused the species’ extinctions indirectly. 比如人类砍伐森林，或者人类携带了对那些动物致命的病菌，或者人类引入或者抚养了那种动物的天敌。The author ignores other factors besides climate change and environmental ones that could also explain the extinctions.

• The fact that no bones of large mammals were found at the sites does not sufficiently demonstrate that humans have not hunted those mammals.骨头可能做其他用途了，比如扔到河里冲走了，或者祭祀烧掉了，埋掉了。

• 没发现骨头也有可能是The author fails to prove that those discovered sites were inhabited by humans. 比如人类现在又酸雨腐蚀，等等。

## 165

Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands were extinct. Previous archaeological findings have suggested that early humans generally relied on both fishing and hunting for food; since archaeologists have discovered numerous sites in the Kaliko Islands where the bones of fish were discarded, it is likely that the humans also hunted the mammals. Furthermore, researchers have uncovered simple tools, such as stone knives, that could be used for hunting. The only clear explanation is that humans caused the extinction of the various mammal species through excessive hunting.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

# 第46类

## 55

The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

“Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people ten to twenty-five years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed.

• The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers.

• Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people ten to twenty-five years old, the age-group most likely to play video games.

• 首先是调查。这个老生常谈的问题，科学，合理，公正。其次是，作者用对于游戏玩家进行的调查，但是对于游戏而言还有游戏设计人员，运营商，业内专家等，他们的观点也值得参考。同时对于这个问题是玩家更喜欢玩哪种游戏，不代表玩家就会这类游戏。这还牵涉到他们是不是可以负担得起费用的问题。The author fails to take into account other factors that might also lead to the decline in their sales of video games. The author fails to consider other features that may also influence the overall quality of a game.

• The author fails to analyze how many players have access to such most up-to-date computers. 电脑性能也是制约因素。

• No evidence could indicate that players 10-25 years old will also prefer such kind of games.

• Sales of video games would be determined by many factors, thus the mere fact cited by the author could not ensure increase in our sales. 比如宏观经济状况，竞争对手。

# 第47类

## 56

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Sock, Inc.

“A recent study of our customers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented Endure manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. We have always advertised our use of the Endure process, but the new study shows that despite our socks’ durability, our average customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three months. Furthermore, our customers surveyed in our largest market, northeastern United States cities, say that they most value Dura-Socks’ stylish appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that we can increase our profits by discontinuing use of the Endure manufacturing process.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• A recent study of our customers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented Endure manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years.

• We have always advertised our use of the Endure process, but the new study shows that despite our socks’ durability, our average customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three months.

• Furthermore, our customers surveyed in our largest market, northeastern United States cities, say that they most value Dura-Socks’ stylish appearance and availability in many colors.

• 首先是调查研究的老生常谈。必须假设设计的方案是合理的，数据的处理是恰当的。调查者没有什么利益相关方的影响。

• The vice president fails to rule out the possibility that the customers purchases new Dura-Socks frequently just because they favor the “ Endure” process.或者他们想用来馈赠亲友。

• The customers surveyed in northeastern United States cities may not be representative of all our customers.

• The study cited by the vice president does not imply that our customers no longer care about the durability of socks. 顾客喜欢颜色式样不代表必须放弃袜子的耐穿度。

• 最后不用Endure 工艺可以盈利的问题是：The vice president fails to inform us the cost of using “Endure” process, thus we cannot evaluate the president’s conclusion. The vice president fails to consider the negative effect of discontinuing the use of the process. 比如消费者其实更加喜欢我们的耐穿袜其次他们才考虑颜色式样呢？不用这种工艺是不是要换新的生产线，这个的先期投入是不是入不敷出呢？

• 小问题：The vice president fails to consider and analyze other factors that would influence our profits.

## 57

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Sock, Inc.

“A recent study of our customers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented Endure manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. We have always advertised our use of the Endure process, but the new study shows that despite our socks’ durability, our average customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three months. Furthermore, our customers surveyed in our largest market, northeastern United States cities, say that they most value Dura-Socks’ stylish appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that we can increase our profits by discontinuing use of the Endure manufacturing process.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

## 82

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Socks, Inc.

“A recent study of Dura-Socks customers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented Endure manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. We have always advertised our use of the Endure process, but the new study shows that despite the socks’ durability, our customers, on average, actually purchase new Dura-Socks every three months. Furthermore, customers surveyed in our largest market—northeastern United States cities—say that they most value Dura-Socks’ stylish appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that we can increase our profits by discontinuing use of the Endure manufacturing process.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

# 第48类

## 59

The following appeared in a memo from the president of Bower Builders, a company that constructs new homes.

“A nationwide survey reveals that the two most-desired home features are a large family room and a large, well-appointed kitchen. A number of homes in our area built by our competitor Domus Construction have such features and have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the national average. To boost sales and profits, we should increase the size of the family rooms and kitchens in all the homes we build and should make state-of-the-art kitchens a standard feature. Moreover, our larger family rooms and kitchens can come at the expense of the dining room, since many of our recent buyers say they do not need a separate dining room for family meals.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• “A nationwide survey reveals that the two most-desired home features are a large family room and a large, well-appointed kitchen.

• A number of homes in our area built by our competitor Domus Construction have such features and have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the national average.

• Moreover, our larger family rooms and kitchens can come at the expense of the dining room, since many of our recent buyers say they do not need a separate dining room for family meals.

• The result of the nationwide survey does not necessarily apply to all specific regions.

• The president unfairly assumes that it is the large family room and the large, well-appointed kitchen that resulted in the fast selling and higher price of the development built by Domus. 比如还有其他原因：Domus施工质量一流，空间设计，室内装修以及市场营销手段更加优秀。或者有良好的物业管理，绝佳的地理位置。

• The president fails to provide any information about the profits Domus gained from the mentioned development.房子卖得快卖得贵不代表利润高还看成本，如果是亏本赚吆喝那么其实也不值得效法。至少是不值得全部效法。

• 即使Domus卖得真好，There may be many other differences between Bowers and Domus.

• The feedback from the recent buyers may not be representative of all consumers.

• The fact that no complaint about small dining room has been received does not indicate that there will be no negative effects of decreasing the size of dining room at all.

• The president fails to consider the possible cost of providing these features, thus we cannot ensure that our profits will certainly increase.

• The fact that recent buyers did not complain does not indicate there will not be any dissatisfaction in the future.

• Merely Including the new features in new homes may not sufficiently ensure our sales and profits to increase. 房价太高人们买不起怎么办？

# 第49类

## 60

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

“Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating.

• Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.

• Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.

• 假设一：既然Most homes in the northeastern United States传统用oil取暖，那么他们也一定会继续用oil取暖。Other new heating fuel may be available currently. 比如会不会有新的取暖方式。No evidence could guarantee that new homes in this region will continue to use heating oil as fuel for heating. 比如 油价波动会不会促使改变（比如中东石油危机导致汽车型号的改变）。电取暖，地热取暖，太阳能这些会不会改变取暖习惯？或者出色的墙体保温技术。

• Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures这个需要假设90天低于正常温度是一个较长的时间。如果一般多数年份是高于低温期温度的，那么就不一定必须取暖了。其次，climate forecasters的观点必须是真实，有效，可信的。但是长期预报是一个比较专业的领域，同时全球主流观点是变暖，这个就需要专家们给出更多的说明。

• The author does not provide any information about the actual amount of heating oil used due to the cold weather last year, thus we cannot evaluate the argument.

• 人口增加不一定导致取暖需求增加。比如：新增人口租房住的比例很高；或者，他们属于短期工作，寒冷的冬季都会离开；或者即使新建了住宅但是采用了新的取暖技术。

• Granted that the demand for heating oil will increase, we cannot guarantee that investing in Consolidated Industries will be profitable. 这个其实要假设：居民使用燃油的效率不会提高，否则可以使用更少的燃油满足需求；其次这个公司没有激烈市场竞争，居民会买其产品；同时，该公式的管理可以有足够的竞争力而不是无法合理控制成本或者内部混乱。

## 145

The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.

“Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

## 146

The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.

“Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

## 150

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

“Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

## 154

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

“Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Based on these developments, we predict a large increase in the demand for heating oil. Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

## 155

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

“Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

# 第50类

## 61

The following appeared in an article in the Grandview Beacon.

“For many years the city of Grandview has provided annual funding for the Grandview Symphony. Last year, however, private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent and attendance at the symphony’s concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Given such developments, some city commissioners argue that the symphony can now be fully self-supporting, and they recommend that funding for the symphony be eliminated from next year’s budget.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• Last year, however, private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent and attendance at the symphony’s concerts-in-the-park series doubled.

• The symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year.

• We do not know the base amount of private contributions to the Symphony the year before last, thus we cannot evaluate if the contributions were significant.

• The fact that attendance at the concert series doubled does not necessarily indicate that the Symphony is operating successfully. 比如原来上座率就很低。同时是不是所有的音乐会都收费呢？如果免费音乐会占很大的比例，那么其实增加也没什么。

• The facts cited by the planner, including the increased private contributions, popularity of concert series, may not recur in the following years. 比如经济下滑了等。

• The planner does not inform us how much will the ticket prices actually increase. 这只是计划加价，但是不确定万一不适合市场则无法确保收益。同时，无法确保万一运用成本上升怎么办？

• Eliminating the funding for the Symphony alone may not prevent a budget deficit sufficiently. Other measures could also be taken to prevent a budget deficit.

• some city commissioners argue的计划还需要接受群众的讨论支持或者反对要等待大家讨论参与。毕竟公共预算需要公众支持。

## 139

The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the city of Grandview.

“Our citizens are well aware of the fact that while the Grandview Symphony Orchestra was struggling to succeed, our city government promised annual funding to help support its programs. Last year, however, private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent, and attendance at the symphony’s concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Such developments indicate that the symphony can now succeed without funding from city government and we can eliminate that expense from next year’s budget. Therefore, we recommend that the city of Grandview eliminate its funding for the Grandview Symphony from next year’s budget. By doing so, we can prevent a city budget deficit without threatening the success of the symphony.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

## 141

The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the city of Grandview.

“When the Grandview Symphony was established ten years ago, the city of Grandview agreed to provide the symphony with annual funding until the symphony became self-sustaining. Two years ago, the symphony hired an internationally known conductor, who has been able to attract high-profile guest musicians to perform with the symphony. Since then, private contributions to the symphony have tripled and attendance at the symphony’s outdoor summer concert series has reached record highs. Now that the symphony has succeeded in finding an audience, the city can eliminate its funding of the symphony.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

## 143

The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the city of Grandview.

“When the Grandview Symphony was established ten years ago, the city of Grandview agreed to provide the symphony with annual funding until the symphony became self-sustaining. Two years ago, the symphony hired an internationally known conductor, who has been able to attract high-profile guest musicians to perform with the symphony. Since then, private contributions to the symphony have tripled and attendance at the symphony’s outdoor summer concert series has reached record highs. Now that the symphony has succeeded in finding an audience, the city can eliminate its funding of the symphony.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

## 162

The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the city of Grandview.

“It is time for the city of Grandview to stop funding the Grandview Symphony Orchestra. It is true that the symphony struggled financially for many years, but last year private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent and attendance at the symphony’s concerts-in-the-park series doubled. In addition, the symphony has just announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. For these reasons, we recommend that the city eliminate funding for the Grandview Symphony Orchestra from next year’s budget. We predict that the symphony will flourish in the years to come even without funding from the city.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

# 第51类

## 62

The following appeared in a memo from the director of a large group of hospitals.

“In a laboratory study of liquid antibacterial hand soaps, a concentrated solution of UltraClean produced a 40 percent greater reduction in the bacteria population than did the liquid hand soaps currently used in our hospitals. During a subsequent test of UltraClean at our hospital in Workby, that hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection than did any of the other hospitals in our group. Therefore, to prevent serious patient infections, we should supply UltraClean at all hand-washing stations throughout our hospital system.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• In a laboratory study of liquid antibacterial hand soaps, a concentrated solution of UltraClean produced a 40 percent greater reduction in the bacteria population than did the liquid hand soaps currently used in our hospitals.

• During a subsequent test of UltraClean at our hospital in Workby, that hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection than did any of the other hospitals in our group.

• The result of the laboratory study may not properly apply to normal hospital environment. 其次实验室环境使用的是concentrated solution of UltraClean，那么普通的药水和concentrated solution of UltraClean是一样的么？一般而言，浓度越大，杀伤力越强。最其次，实验室的计划实施我们需要知道其资质是不是有资格承担相应研究或者可以确保准确度。

• The director fails to inform us if the bacteria killed by UltraClean are all harmful.

• The success of UltraClean at the tested hospital, if there is any, does not necessarily recur at other hospitals. 比如workby这个医院是不是环境更好一点。或者workby病人本身身体素质更好一点,人口结构年轻，公共卫生好？workby当地的气候是不是宜人养病等等。或者workby医院的管理更好，护理水平更高？

• The director fails to differentiate between the severity of infections at the tested hospital, thus we cannot ensure that UltraClean can effectively prevent serious infections.

• Granted that UltraClean is very effective in killing bacteria, the director does not demonstrate the necessity of supplying UltraClean at all our hospitals. 比如其他地方的人口结构，公共卫生状况，人们的饮食习惯，生活习惯，地理气候，以及对于洗手液的偏好都可能不同。不可盲目类比。

• The director overlooks other effective measures of preventing patient infections.

• The director fails to consider if Nadasept has any side effect.

## 121

The following appeared in a memo from the director of a large group of hospitals.

“In a controlled laboratory study of liquid hand soaps, a concentrated solution of extra strength UltraClean hand soap produced a 40 percent greater reduction in harmful bacteria than did the liquid hand soaps currently used in our hospitals. During our recent test of regular-strength UltraClean with doctors, nurses, and visitors at our hospital in Worktown, the hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection (a 20 percent reduction) than did any of the other hospitals in our group. Therefore, to prevent serious patient infections, we should supply UltraClean at all hand-washing stations, including those used by visitors, throughout our hospital system.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

## 122

The following appeared in a memo from the director of a large group of hospitals.

“In a controlled laboratory study of liquid hand soaps, a concentrated solution of extra strength UltraClean hand soap produced a 40 percent greater reduction in harmful bacteria than did the liquid hand soaps currently used in our hospitals. During our recent test of regular-strength UltraClean with doctors, nurses, and visitors at our hospital in Worktown, the hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection (a 20 percent reduction) than did any of the other hospitals in our group. The explanation for the 20 percent reduction in patient infections is the use of UltraClean soap.”

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

## 124

The following appeared in a memo from the director of a large group of hospitals.

“In a controlled laboratory study of liquid hand soaps, a concentrated solution of extra strength UltraClean hand soap produced a 40 percent greater reduction in harmful bacteria than did the liquid hand soaps currently used in our hospitals. During our recent test of regular-strength UltraClean with doctors, nurses, and visitors at our hospital in Worktown, the hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection (a 20 percent reduction) than did any of the other hospitals in our group. Therefore, to prevent serious patient infections, we should supply UltraClean at all hand-washing stations, including those used by visitors, throughout our hospital system.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

# 第52类

## 63

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily newspaper.

“Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league sports, over 40,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league soccer players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure exerted by coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league sports, over 40,000 of these young players suffered injuries.

• When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league soccer players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure exerted by coaches and parents to win games.

• Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities.

• The fact that many young players suffered injuries throughout the country does not necessarily indicate that Parkville should discontinue athletic competition.

• Without the total number of children who participated in the competitions we could not evaluate the situation. 比如有800万小学生参与，那么其实4,000的受伤很低的比例。

• The author does not differentiate the severity of injuries. 如果只是擦伤，轻微扭伤其实不算什么。

• We need to know how about the injury-rate of those young players compared with children who do not participate in these games. 比如孩子如果不参加运动那么其实也会有受伤的可能性。We do not know the rate of injuries before children participated in these games, thus could not evaluate if the situation are getting worse.

• The players in the recent study might not be representative of all young players. 其次，这些小运动员会不会夸大他们的压力？再次，我们必须区分它们的压力不是学习压力，运动竞争压力引起的。最后，The young players at Parkville may not necessarily also suffer psychological pressure as the players do in those major cities.

• No information about the academic performance of the children who participated in youth-leagues is provided, thus we could not judge if we need to discontinue athletic competition to guarantee more academic activities for these students. 所以The author unfairly assumes that children would use the time for academic activities if they did not take part in those games.

• 其次这些专家的背景，专业技能，是不是没有任何利益关联，可以独立，客观是存疑的。

• The fact that many children were injured in soccer games does not indicate that we should discontinue all other athletic competitions.

• The author fails to consider the positive effects of athletic competition.同时也有很多不是太需要身体对抗的项目，比如排球，羽毛球，乒乓球是不是也会容易受伤呢？

# 第53类

## 64

Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision. Since archaeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali, we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to create these statues. This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could be used only for life-size sculptures. It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found. In light of this discovery, collectors predict that the life-size sculptures will decrease in value while the miniatures increase in value.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

• Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision. Since archaeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali, we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to create these statues.

• This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could be used only for life-size sculptures.

• It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found.

• The recently discovered molds of human heads and hands are not necessarily used by Kalinese artists for sculpting. 比如是另外的族群使用的，只是因为各种原因比如贸易等移动懂Kalinese.

• Granted those molds were used for sculpture purpose, we cannot hastily conclude that Kalinese artist also use molds to create all life-size statues.比如这些事提供仿真作用的呢？

• Other possible factors would also lead to the differences between miniature statues and life-size statures. 比如小雕像只是用来整体构图使用的草稿。

• Alternative explanation could also explain why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found.比如那些工具腐烂了。或者但是为了妥善保管工具，工具被专门存储在一个未被发现的地方。 其次，No sufficient evidence is provided to prove that Kalinese artists did not use any sculpting tools and techniques to create life-size statues.

• The author’s assumption that the life-size sculptures will decrease in value and the miniatures to increase in value is unwarranted. 艺术品价值取决于稀缺程度和很多因素不能但从工艺技术的角度考虑。其次，部分collectors的观点是不是可以准确可信呢？我们需要更多地检验。

# 第54类

## 65

When Stanley Park first opened, it was the largest, most heavily used public park in town. It is still the largest park, but it is no longer heavily used. Video cameras mounted in the park’s parking lots last month revealed the park’s drop in popularity: the recordings showed an average of only 50 cars per day. In contrast, tiny Carlton Park in the heart of the business district is visited by more than 150 people on a typical weekday. An obvious difference is that Carlton Park, unlike Stanley Park, provides ample seating. Thus, if Stanley Park is ever to be as popular with our citizens as Carlton Park, the town will obviously need to provide more benches, thereby converting some of the unused open areas into spaces suitable for socializing.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• Stanley Park is no longer heavily used.

• if Stanley Park is ever to be as popular with our citizens as Carlton Park, the town will obviously need to provide more benches, thereby converting some of the unused open areas into spaces suitable for socializing.

• Video cameras mounted in the park’s parking lots last month revealed the park’s drop in popularity: the recordings showed an average of only 50 cars per day. In contrast, tiny Carlton Park in the heart of the business district is visited by more than 150 people on a typical weekday.

• An obvious difference is that Carlton Park, unlike Stanley Park, provides ample seating.

• The number of cars at the park’s parking lots may not be a good indication of the park’s popularity.因为可能很多人不开车去，或者开车去但是停在其他停车站。

• 其次数据比较不合适，S park使用的是上月平均，但是C park使用的工作日，也就是周一到周五，C处于商业区，一般而言工作人人流多，这对于S并不是很公平的比较。

• There may be some special reasons last month that resulted in the dropped popularity of Stanley Park. 比如：The author does not provide information concerning the number of visitors at Stanley before the cameras were mounted. 是不是人们考虑隐私问题不去？

• Many other differences may render the two parks not comparable. 比如一个是绿地公园供人们休息的；一个是主题乐园可以餐饮娱乐的。或者两个公园的地理位置不同，周围居民的工作性质，生活水平不同。The author fails to convince us that it is the ample seating that makes Carlton so popular.

• The author fails to consider the possible negative effects of converting unused open areas into public social spaces 或者增加座椅。比如本来人们就喜欢S的空旷空间，加上椅子反而累赘。

# 第55类

## 66

The following appeared in a memo from the owner of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

“For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, all of the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, all of the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin.

• Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers.

• our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory.

• The situation last year may be unusual, it does not indicate that domestic cheddar cheeses will also be popular in the future.

• The situation at the newest store might not be representative of all stores. (selective sample/C.S)

• The president does not provide any information about the subscribers of Cheese of the World, thus they may not be representative of United States consumers. (are the respondents representative?)

• Many other better ways might be available to improve profits of our stores. (necessity of the solution)

• The president fails to consider the negative effects of discontinuing the inventory of imported cheeses. (adv:disadv)

• The president does not provide any information about the actual profit of domestic and imported cheese respectively, thus we cannot evaluate the president’s conclusion.

## 107

The following appeared in a memo from the business manager of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

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“For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, all of the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.”

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Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

## 108

The following appeared in a memo from the owner of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

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“For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, all of the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

# 第56类

## 67

The following appeared as part of a business plan developed by the manager of the Rialto Movie Theater.

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“Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades, must make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow the example of the new Apex Theater in the mall outside of town. When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the Rialto intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same features as Apex.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

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• When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade（电玩室）, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system.

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• Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year.

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• Thus, if the Rialto intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same features as Apex.”

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• We are not informed about the actual profit and the number of moviegoers of Apex since its opening.

• 我们不清楚做这样的改变对于这个影院到底有多少帮助，是不是说这些改变可以吸引人们来看电影呢？

• The manager unfairly assumes that the success of Apex, if there is any, was result from those new features mentioned above.

• Apex的改变是去年的，今年是不是一样有效果呢？

• The reliability of the survey on which the argument relies is not guaranteed. 也就是调查正常需要保证的客观，公正，可靠，中立。这个调查事实上，什么也无法说明。首先如果观众每年平均去看电影的次数有100多次，那么其实减少5次没有什么影响。其次，如果观众看电影的次数减少了但是每次看电影的票价增加了，那么其实电影的收入不一定减少。

• The manager fails to consider the possible cost of these fashionable features.

• The manager offers no evidence that the two theaters are indeed comparable. So，other solutions can also be used to achieve the manager’s goal.这两家电影院的地理位置不同处理的方式也不同，需要考虑的方法也有很多。不一定非要采取Apex的方法，何况Apex的方法是值得怀疑。

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# 第57类

## 68

A recent study reported that pet owners have longer, healthier lives on average than do people who own no pets. Specifically, dog owners tend to have a lower incidence of heart disease. In light of these findings, Sherwood Hospital should form a partnership with Sherwood Animal Shelter to institute an adopt-a-dog program. The program would encourage dog ownership for patients recovering from heart disease, which should reduce these patients’ chance of experiencing continuing heart problems and also reduce their need for ongoing treatment. As a further benefit, the publicity about the program would encourage more people to adopt pets from the shelter. And that will reduce the incidence of heart disease in the general population.

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Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

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• A recent study reported that pet owners have longer, healthier lives on average than do people who own no pets. Specifically, dog owners tend to have a lower incidence of heart disease.

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• The program would encourage dog ownership for patients recovering from heart disease, which should reduce these patients’ chance of experiencing continuing heart problems and also reduce their need for ongoing treatment.

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• As a further benefit, the publicity about the program would encourage more people to adopt pets from the shelter. And that will reduce the incidence of heart disease in the general population.

• 对于论据1，最最关键的就是研究的可靠程度。首先做这项研究的人必须是客观，可靠，中立的，不要是某个宠物饲料公司赞助的研究；其次研究的过程也必须科学，严谨，认真；最后研究的结果是不是被大家说普遍认可。简单说就是：可能No causal relationship between owning pets and healthier lives of the pet owners is established. OR Maybe, the author unfairly assumes that at least a significant number of people who adopt pets from the shelter will have risks of heart disease.

• 其次这项研究，事实上说的是养宠物的人更加长寿而不是养宠物可以改善病人的病情甚至治愈。那么对于已经患上疾病的病人，这个措施是值得怀疑的。也就是The author fails to illustrate that owning a dog would have the same positive effects on recovery of heart disease as it has on preventing heart disease.

• 对于论据2，There may be other differences between people who own pets and those who do not.比如，养狗的人心态平和，愿意付出爱心等等也会影响心脏病的发病率。这些因素和养狗相关当事不是说养狗就能够带来的。换言之也可以不养狗而带来这些积极因素。对于动物的卫生免疫和清洁喂养都会带来问题，甚至寄生虫和传染病，所以其实这项计划说不定可能会有更坏的影响。Pets could cause other health problems.最后，Some patients may not be willing to adopt a dog, or capable of owning dogs, or could afford raising a dog.

• 对于论据3，这个计划还是存在疑点。The author hastily assumes that the proposed program would be appealing to the general public.这需要很好的宣传效果和普遍人群都潜在着心脏病的风险才可能成立。Since the risk of heart disease in the general population might be influenced by many factors, implementing the program alone may not sufficiently reduce the risk.

# 第58类

## 69

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a large, highly diversified company.

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“Ten years ago our company had two new office buildings constructed as regional headquarters for two regions. The buildings were erected by different construction companies—Alpha and Zeta. Although the two buildings had identical floor plans, the building constructed by Zeta cost 30 percent more to build. However, that building’s expenses for maintenance last year were only half those of Alpha’s. In addition, the energy consumption of the Zeta building has been lower than that of the Alpha building every year since its construction. Given these data, plus the fact that Zeta has a stable workforce with little employee turnover, we recommend using Zeta rather than Alpha for our new building project, even though Alpha’s bid promises lower construction costs.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

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• Ten years ago our company had two new office buildings constructed as regional headquarters for two regions. The buildings were erected by different construction companies—Alpha and Zeta. Although the two buildings had identical floor plans, the building constructed by Zeta cost 30 percent more to build. However, that building’s expenses for maintenance last year were only half those of Alpha’s.

• In addition, the energy consumption of the Zeta building has been lower than that of the Alpha building every year since its construction.

• Zeta has a stable workforce with little employee turnover

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• The vice president fails to consider many other differences between the two regions and the two buildings. 比如这两个地方的环境对于房屋的折旧不同，这两地房屋的建设难度不同。

• The low expenses for maintenance of the Zeta building last year might be an unusual case, and do not necessarily continue in the future. 这里只是提到了一年的数据，没有十年平均的结果。说不定十年的平均值反而显得Alpha更低？

• 同样的问题对于能耗这个数据。可能和Zeta所处的地区有关，比如这里冬暖夏凉，没有太大的温差变化。或者这里采用了更加先进的能源系统，比如地热等。其次人们对于能源的使用意识，是不是节能灯。同时，如果两栋大楼的使用率不一样的话也无法比较。

• A stable workforce with little employee turnover tells nothing about the construction quality of a construction company. The vice president unfairly assumes that the working quality of Zeta is still superior to that of Alpha today.人员流动率低并不是一个很好的反应员工素质的指标，特别是单一指标的时候。比如可能是公司非常有前途而不愿离开，也可能是平均主义的考核制度，人员绩效考核低下等，或者大家特别懒惰等等。

• 所以，其实The facts cited by the vice president do not necessarily indicate that Zeta has advantages over Alpha in constructing all kinds of buildings.

• 最后不得不提到的一点是：The vice president fails to consider other competent construction companies besides Alpha and Zeta.特别是居然还在用十年前的公司书目情况来招标。难道这十年两家没有任何变化？

## 70

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a large, highly diversified company.

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“Ten years ago our company had two new office buildings constructed as regional headquarters for two regions. The buildings were erected by different construction companies—Alpha and Zeta. Although the two buildings had identical floor plans, the building constructed by Zeta cost 30 percent more to build. However, that building’s expenses for maintenance last year were only half those of Alpha’s. Furthermore, the energy consumption of the Zeta building has been lower than that of the Alpha building every year since its construction. Such data indicate that we should use Zeta rather than Alpha for our contemplated new building project, even though Alpha’s bid promises lower construction costs.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

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## 115

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a large, highly diversified company.

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“Ten years ago our company had two new office buildings constructed as regional headquarters for two different regions. The buildings were erected by two different construction companies—Alpha and Zeta. Even though the two buildings had identical floor plans, the building constructed by Zeta cost 30 percent more to build, and its expenses for maintenance last year were twice those of the building constructed by Alpha. Furthermore, the energy consumption of the Zeta building has been higher than that of the Alpha building every year since its construction. Such data, plus the fact that Alpha has a stable workforce with little employee turnover, indicate that we should use Alpha rather than Zeta for our contemplated new building project.”

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Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

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# 第59类

## 71

The following is a letter to the editor of the Waymarsh Times.

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“Traffic here in Waymarsh is becoming a problem. Although just three years ago a state traffic survey showed that the typical driving commuter took 20 minutes to get to work, the commute now takes closer to 40 minutes, according to the survey just completed. Members of the town council already have suggested more road building to address the problem, but as well as being expensive, the new construction will surely disrupt some of our residential neighborhoods. It would be better to follow the example of the nearby city of Garville. Last year Garville implemented a policy that rewards people who share rides to work, giving them coupons for free gas. Pollution levels in Garville have dropped since the policy was implemented, and people from Garville tell me that commuting times have fallen considerably. There is no reason why a policy like Garville’s shouldn’t work equally well in Waymarsh.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

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The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a national newspaper.

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• Although just three years ago a state traffic survey showed that the typical driving commuter took 20 minutes to get to work, the commute now takes closer to 40 minutes, according to the survey just completed.

• Members of the town council already have suggested more road building to address the problem, but as well as being expensive, the new construction will surely disrupt some of our residential neighborhoods.

• Last year Garville implemented a policy that rewards people who share rides to work, giving them coupons for free gas. Pollution levels in Garville have dropped since the policy was implemented, and people from Garville tell me that commuting times have fallen considerably.

• There is no reason why a policy like Garville’s shouldn’t work equally well in Waymarsh.”

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• 作者缺少提供更多的关于调查方案的信息。我们没有办法做更多的判断。调查必须准确客观公众中立。调查的实施必须严格科学认真。

• 针对拼车导致污染减少，我们需要证据证明：不是其他原因导致的污染减少，比如去年的天气很好，经常下雨净化空气；同时，不是因为Garville发生了相当规模的工业转移或者进行了大规模的升级换代。同时，不是因为城市对于污染采取了更加严格的管制措施。We do not know the actual level of pollution in Waymarsh and the causes for the pollution, thus implementing the policy may not necessarily improve Waymarsh’s traffic and environment.

• 对于作者的权威论证法，我们必须找到证据证明：这些感到交通改善的人占总人口数的比例；同时他们的立场是不是真实可信中立，比如制定此项政策的政府官员等。The author’s friends may not be representative of all Gearsville residents.

• 对于G地的政策可以完整移植到W，也存在了如下的证据需要提供：这两个城市的可比性是不是存在？二个城市的机动车数量，交通基础设施，城市管理水平，汽车保有总量，人们对于拼车的接受程度等。The author fails to establish a causal relationship between implementing the policy and drop of pollution levels in Gearsville.同时， Implementing the policy similar to Gearsville’s might not be equally effective in Waymarsh.

• 当然在这个之外，可以说：作者需要进一步证据证明他认为的W交通很差是普遍现象。很有可能就是那么一段时间天气特别恶劣导致的交通拥堵。The author fails to prove that the situation faced by the author is not an unusual. 同时The author unfairly assumes that the current situation will continue in the future.

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# 第60类

## 72

“Your recent article on corporate downsizing* in Elthyria maintains that the majority of competent workers who have lost jobs as a result of downsizing face serious economic hardship, often for years, before finding other suitable employment. But this claim is undermined by a recent report on the Elthyrian economy, which found that since 1999 far more jobs have been created than have been eliminated, bringing the unemployment rate in Elthyria to its lowest level in decades. Moreover, two-thirds of these newly created jobs have been in industries that tend to pay above-average wages, and the vast majority of these jobs are full-time.”

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*Downsizing is the process in which corporations deliberately reduce the number of their employees.

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Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

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• a recent report on the Elthyrian economy, which found that since 1999 far more jobs have been created than have been eliminated, bringing the unemployment rate in Elthyria to its lowest level in decades.

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• Moreover, two-thirds of these newly created jobs have been in industries that tend to pay above-average wages, and the vast majority of these jobs are full-time.”

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• 首先还是调查报告的通病，调查者中立，调查过程科学。

• 其次，The author does not provide the actual number of new jobs created, perhaps the number is still lower than the total number of laid-off workers although it is higher than the number of jobs eliminated.也就是这个失业率的下降完全可以是其他工作岗位制造出来的，但是对于下岗工人而言其实他们的岗位一直在减少。

• 同时since 1999这个时间跨度太大，整整13年的工作数目增加并不能代表最近一两年在不断减少。

• The author fails to demonstrate that the newly created jobs since 1999 are suitable for those workers downsized by corporations.

• The report does not clearly demonstrate what fraction of workers who lost their jobs have found new employment.也就是这份报告其实故意扭曲了讨论的主体，一个是下岗工人的就业问题，一个是普遍人群的就业问题。也就是，The author fails to inform us how many laid-off workers engaged in those highly paid and full-time jobs mentioned by the author.

• The fact that many new jobs are in industries that tend to pay high wages does not necessarily guarantee that these new jobs are also highly paid.这里还是模糊数据的问题，many到底是多么many。和下岗工人的总数目比是不是可以比较？

• The statistics cited by the author still does not rule out the possibility that many laid-off worker do face serious economic hardship before they find a new job.因为他事实上提供的数据没有任何相关性。We are not informed what kind of new employment did those workers find, and if these jobs are high-paying jobs.

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# 第61类

## 73

The following appeared on the Mozart School of Music Web site.

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“The Mozart School of Music should be the first choice for parents considering enrolling their child in music lessons. First of all, the Mozart School welcomes youngsters at all ability and age levels; there is no audition to attend the school. Second, the school offers instruction in nearly all musical instruments as well a wide range of styles and genres from classical to rock. Third, the faculty includes some of the most distinguished musicians in the area. Finally, many Mozart graduates have gone on to become well-known and highly paid professional musicians.”

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Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

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• First of all, the Mozart School welcomes youngsters at all ability and age levels; there is no audition to attend the school.

• Second, the school offers instruction in nearly all musical instruments as well a wide range of styles and genres from classical to rock.

• Third, the faculty includes some of the most distinguished musicians in the area.

• Finally, many Mozart graduates have gone on to become well-known and highly paid professional musicians.

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• 第一个理由的假设是：这所学校必须有办法让任何年龄、没有任何声乐基础的学生喜欢上音乐。其次，不论这里的孩子是什么水平，都可以取得进步。The author fails to illustrate that intensive practice and training are important and necessary for all music students.同时The author does not inform us the amount of tuition charged by Mozart Music School, and if the gifted students could afford it.

• 第二个需要证明该校可以教授任何的乐器和风格。We are not sure whether the equipment and facilities are available to all new students.

• 同时很多有名的音乐家当老师事实上没有证明他们可以全心全意地去教授，同时好的音乐家不一定是好的音乐教育家。We are not informed about the performance of other faculty members, students are not necessarily taught by those most distinguished music teachers mentioned in the argument.

• 再次，Other music schools may be more suitable for some students.

• Other music schools may also have ample facilities and famous teachers.

• 最后，The author unfairly attributes the graduates’ success to the education they received in Mozart School of Music. The argument fails to provide information concerning the general employment condition of the school’s graduates.

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# 第62类

## 74

The president of Grove College has recommended that the college abandon its century-old tradition of all-female education and begin admitting men. Pointing to other all-female colleges that experienced an increase in applications after adopting coeducation, the president argues that coeducation would lead to a significant increase in applications and enrollment. However, the director of the alumnae association opposes the plan. Arguing that all-female education is essential to the very identity of the college, the director cites annual surveys of incoming students in which these students say that the school’s all-female status was the primary reason they selected Grove. The director also points to a survey of Grove alumnae in which a majority of respondents strongly favored keeping the college all female.

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

\

\

\

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• Arguing that all-female education is essential to the very identity of the college

• The director cites annual surveys of incoming students in which these students say that the school’s all-female status was the primary reason they selected Grove.

• The director also points to a survey of Grove alumnae in which a majority of respondents strongly favored keeping the college all female.

\

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• 首先director的第一个论断是存在问题的。所谓大学的identity就不可以做任何的改变是让人存疑的一个证据。任何大学或者教育机构应当是顺应时代潮流，顺应社会需要。无视实际情况，抱残守缺是不是值得必要？当然有的特性也应当是坚持到底的，比如学术自由，科研诚信等等。继续深入论证的话全员女子教育是不是一所大学的本质属性呢？大学的目的，大学社会变迁中坚守与改变到底是什么呢？

• 关于新生的调查同样是值得怀疑的。比如调查的实施，调查者等。The reliability of the survey is also open to doubt.

• 但是即使这样，也依然有问题，因为Students who favor all-female education might be more likely to respond to the survey. 或者说其实选择这所学校的人本身就该是全员女子教育的支持者，这些学生很有可能是进入了这所学校而不得不说这所学校的好处。如果确实需要的话还要考察没有进入这所学校的同学是处于什么样的顾虑。

• 关于alumni的调查也是值得怀疑的。这里带入调查的N个理由。同时这里的信息其实存在着很多的问题。所谓alumni就是1
a person who has attended or has graduated from a particular school, college, or university 2 : a person who is a former member, employee, contributor, or inmate那么这些人的意见是不是具有代表性呢？是不是该问更多的人呢？比如家长，专业教育人事，政府官员，企业雇主，研究人员等。

## 147

The following recommendation was made by the president and administrative staff of Grove College, a private institution, to the college’s governing committee.

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“We recommend that Grove College preserve its century-old tradition of all-female education rather than admit men into its programs. It is true that a majority of faculty members voted in favor of coeducation, arguing that it would encourage more students to apply to Grove. But 80 percent of the students responding to a survey conducted by the student government wanted the school to remain all female, and over half of the alumnae who answered a separate survey also opposed coeducation. Keeping the college all female will improve morale among students and convince alumnae to keep supporting the college financially.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

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## 148

The following recommendation was made by the president and administrative staff of Grove College, a private institution, to the college’s governing committee.

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“We recommend that Grove College preserve its century-old tradition of all-female education rather than admit men into its programs. It is true that a majority of faculty members voted in favor of coeducation, arguing that it would encourage more students to apply to Grove. But 80 percent of the students responding to a survey conducted by the student government wanted the school to remain all female, and over half of the alumnae who answered a separate survey also opposed coeducation. Keeping the college all female will improve morale among students and convince alumnae to keep supporting the college financially.”

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Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

## 149

The following recommendation was made by the president and administrative staff of Grove College, a private institution, to the college’s governing committee.

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“We recommend that Grove College preserve its century-old tradition of all-female education rather than admit men into its programs. It is true that a majority of faculty members voted in favor of coeducation, arguing that it would encourage more students to apply to Grove. But 80 percent of the students responding to a survey conducted by the student government wanted the school to remain all female, and over half of the alumnae who answered a separate survey also opposed coeducation. Keeping the college all female will improve morale among students and convince alumnae to keep supporting the college financially.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

## 156

\

The following recommendation was made by the president and administrative staff of Grove College, a private institution, to the college’s governing committee.

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“Recently, there have been discussions about ending Grove College’s century-old tradition of all-female education by admitting male students into our programs. At a recent faculty meeting, a majority of faculty members voted in favor of coeducation, arguing that it would encourage more students to apply to Grove. However, Grove students, both past and present, are against the idea of coeducation. Eighty percent of the students responding to a survey conducted by the student government wanted the school to remain all female, and over half of the alumnae who answered a separate survey also opposed coeducation. Therefore, we recommend maintaining Grove College’s tradition of all-female education. We predict that keeping the college all-female will improve morale among students and convince alumnae to keep supporting the college financially.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

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\

# 第63类

## 75

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.

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“The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over$3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure fair prices for consumers.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

\

\

• The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago.

• During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over$3.00 per gallon.

• Prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk,

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• 这里的第一个数据来自政府部门，所以我们还是基本接受的。但是更好的方法可以加入不同的相关机构去进行比较，更加佐证数据真实性。但是这个统计的问题在于没有给出更多的支持性数据。我们不知道牛奶厂数量增加是不是波动性的增加还是趋势性的持续增加。如果是波动性的数量增加，那么其实后续结果很难预料。The number of dairy farms does not necessarily indicate the supply of milk. 比如因为各种奶牛疾病或者新增加的奶牛场的管理问题等。

• 其次， We are not informed about how much did the price of milk actually increase after adjustment for inflation. 也就是考虑到如果通货膨胀有80%的话，价格增加25%其实是可以接受的。

• 同时，这里存在着地域范围差异。The author unfairly assumes that Excello’s milk prices reflect those throughout Batavia. 或者也可以说，Even the production of milk in the country increased in general, no information is offered to show whether the production in Excello also increased.

• The author fails to consider the variation in the demand of milk. 牛奶也有很多种的，不是每种都会涨价的。说不定只有一种涨价特别厉害，其他事实上在降价。

• The author does not provide a cost benefit analysis. 我们无法确定人工成本和生产成本是不是变化。

• The author fails to consider other possible methods that may guarantee lower prices and an adequate supply.

• The proposed regulation may lead to undesirable consequences.

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# 第64类

## 76

The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

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“Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company’s sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.

\

\

• Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol

• Tday low-fat products abound in many food stores.

• Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company’s sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease.

\

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• The author fails to assure us that the survey results accurately reflect the desires of most consumers, or that the results accurately predict consumer behavior.

• The fact that low-fat foods are in abundant supply in food stores does not necessarily indicate an increasing demand for low-fat dairy products or a dimin­ishing demand for high-fat dairy products.

• The newsletter concludes too hastily that Old Dairy profits will decline. 比如这类产品可能口感特别好，可能有特定的消费群体。

• The argument fails to provide any information about other products marketed by Old Dairy which may be low in fat and cholesterol.

• The author fails to consider other factors that may influence the consumers’ decision in choosing food.

• The mere fact that many Old Dairy’s food products are high in fat and cholesterol does not necessarily prove that their stock is not worth investing. 因为作为一个公司事实上可能存在其他的业务，比如房地产，饮料，通信等其他产业，一个产业的失利不代表整个公司股票的贬值。

• The author ignores the possibility that Old Dairy may change its policy and main product in the future.

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# 第65类

## 77

The following recommendation appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

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“Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell’s economy—and generate additional tax revenues—is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.”

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Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

\

\

Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percent.

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• The arguer fails to point out how the golf course and resort hotel actually contributed to the economy of Ocean View.

• Ocean View and Hopewell may not be comparable.

• The argument relies on an unwarranted assumption that Hopewell lacks golf course and resort hotel, or that the existing ones are not attractive enough.

• The arguer ignores other possible methods that may improve Hopewell’s economy more efficiently. 比如可以发展软件设计，电子工业等等产业。

• The mayor assumes too hastily that the golf course and hotel will continue to benefit Hopewell’s overall economy.

• The 30 percent increase in tax revenues of Ocean View does not indicate that its economic condition is better than Hopewell’s, because we do not know the base amount of tax revenues to begin with.

## 169

The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of Brindleburg to the city council.

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“Two years ago, the town of Seaside Vista opened a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. Since then, the Seaside Vista Tourism Board has reported a 20% increase in visitors. In addition, local banks reported a steep rise in the number of new business loan applications they received this year. The amount of tax money collected by Seaside Vista has also increased, allowing the town to announce plans to improve Seaside Vista’s roads and bridges. We recommend building a similar golf course and resort hotel in Brindleburg. We predict that this project will generate additional tax revenue that the city can use to fund much-needed public improvements.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

# 第66类

## 78

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food distribution company with food storage warehouses in several cities.

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“Recently, we signed a contract with the Fly-Away Pest Control Company to provide pest control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only$10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff for all our pest control services.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

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• Recently, we signed a contract with the Fly-Away Pest Control Company to provide pest control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. • Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only$10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage.

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• The situation in Palm City and Wintervale might be quite different. 比如天气的剧烈变化，当地虫害大爆发，仓库的维护出现问题，食品的包装也可能出了问题。不一定是治虫公司的责任。同时还要考虑两地产品的价格差异，不同的价格差异，导致的绝对损失数量没有意义。比如一处的的产品损伤一件就是$10000,另外一处损失了100件的总和才是$5000。

• The vice president does not inform us about the actual price charged by each company, thus we can not evaluate if we can save money by adopting the president’s advice.

• There may be some difference between the specialty of the two company on pest-control, thus it is too hasty to use Buzzoff for all our pest-control services. 这里我们事实上还要考虑很多其他因素，比如对于某种特定的害虫可能只有一家公司可以承接。

• There may be many other pest-control companies which can do even better than the two companies for us to choose from

• Other methods can also be applied to achieve the president’s purpose of saving money.

## 114

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food distribution company with food storage warehouses in several cities.

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“Recently, we signed a contract with the Fly-Away Pest Control Company to provide pest control services at our warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest Control Company, which we have used for many years in Palm City, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only$10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff for all our pest control services.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

## 116

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food distribution company with food storage warehouses in several cities.

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“Recently, we signed a contract with the Fly-Away Pest Control Company to provide pest control services at our warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest Control Company, which we have used for many years in Palm City, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only$10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. This difference in pest damage is best explained by the negligence of Fly-Away.”

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Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

## 117

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food distribution company with food storage warehouses in several cities.

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“Recently, we signed a contract with the Fly-Away Pest Control Company to provide pest control services at our warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest Control Company, which we have used for many years in Palm City, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only$10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff for all our pest control services.”

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Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

# 第67类

## 79

Since those issues of Newsbeat magazine that featured political news on their front cover were the poorest-selling issues over the past three years, the publisher of Newsbeat has recommended that the magazine curtail its emphasis on politics to focus more exclusively on economics and personal finance. She points to a recent survey of readers of general interest magazines that indicates greater reader interest in economic issues than in political ones. Newsbeat’s editor, however, opposes the proposed shift in editorial policy, pointing out that very few magazines offer extensive political coverage anymore.

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

\

\

• Since those issues of Newsbeat magazine that featured political news on their front cover were the poorest-selling issues over the past three years

• She points to a recent survey of readers of general interest magazines that indicates greater reader interest in economic issues than in political ones.

• Newsbeat’s editor, however, opposes the proposed shift in editorial policy, pointing out that very few magazines offer extensive political coverage anymore.

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• The publisher fails to establish a causal relationship between featuring international news stories on magazines’ front covers and the poor sales of these issues. 比如是不是这本杂志的后面文章做的太差劲了以至于大家不愿意看？是不是这些政治文章雷同？抑或有竞争对手做的报道更加引人入胜？No information concerning the profits of Newsbeat and its competing news-magazines is provided, thus we cannot evaluate if decreasing the emphasis on international news is a wise strategy.

• The fact that the competing news-magazines have decreased their emphasis on international news might just give Newsbeat the advantage of being the only magazine covering international news.

• The publisher ignores other means to report on international news besides maintaining foreign bureaus.

• Granted that featuring international news stories on the front covers did cause problems, we cannot hastily generalize that the amount of international news should be decreased.

• The publisher ignores the negative effects of the proposed strategy.

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# 第68类

## 80

The following is taken from a memo from the advertising director of the Super Screen Movie Production Company.

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“According to a recent report from our marketing department, during the past year, fewer people attended Super Screen-produced movies than in any other year. And yet the percentage of positive reviews by movie reviewers about specific Super Screen movies actually increased during the past year. Clearly, the contents of these reviews are not reaching enough of our prospective viewers. Thus, the problem lies not with the quality of our movies but with the public’s lack of awareness that movies of good quality are available. Super Screen should therefore allocate a greater share of its budget next year to reaching the public through advertising.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

\

\

\

• According to a recent report from our marketing department, during the past year, fewer people attended Super Screen-produced movies than in any other year. And yet the percentage of positive reviews by movie reviewers about specific Super Screen movies actually increased during the past year.

• Clearly, the contents of these reviews are not reaching enough of our prospective viewers.

• Thus, the problem lies not with the quality of our movies but with the public’s lack of awareness that movies of good quality are available.

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• 第一个论据提出的事实上是一个现象：也就是这个电影买的电影都是叫好不卖座。首先，对于report依然是怀疑客观公正科学等等。其次，怀疑这个部门的建议是不是有利益瓜葛，毕竟增加广告费用第一个收益就是该部门。所以关于真是的市场情况需要更多地佐证。

• 第二个是作者人为影评人的正面评价是不是没有让观众了解。这里其实存在的假设是观众会参考影评人的意见，但是观众是不是普遍不相信影评人呢？其次，现在都市这么快节奏的生活，很有可能很多的人来不及去看电影或者他们更加愿意选择短平快的娱乐方式呢？是不是类似卡拉OK，DVD，上网观看的形式分流了观众？这牵涉到电影行业的生存之本。

• 其次可能还有其他的要素影响观众去看电影与否，比如是不是有好的片子，是不是票价合理，是不是方便舒适。

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# 第69类.

## 81

The following appeared in a business magazine.

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“As a result of numerous complaints of dizziness and nausea on the part of consumers of Promofoods tuna, the company requested that eight million cans of its tuna be returned for testing. Promofoods concluded that the canned tuna did not, after all, pose a health risk. This conclusion is based on tests performed on samples of the recalled cans by chemists from Promofoods; the chemists found that of the eight food chemicals most commonly blamed for causing symptoms of dizziness and nausea, five were not found in any of the tested cans. The chemists did find small amounts of the three remaining suspected chemicals but pointed out that these occur naturally in all canned foods.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be addressed in order to decide whether the conclusion and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to the questions would help to evaluate the conclusion.

\

\

• As a result of numerous complaints of dizziness and nausea on the part of consumers of Promofoods tuna, the company requested that eight million cans of its tuna be returned for testing.

• This conclusion is based on tests performed on samples of the recalled cans by chemists from Promofoods; the chemists found that of the eight food chemicals most commonly blamed for causing symptoms of dizziness and nausea, five were not found in any of the tested cans.

• The chemists did find small amounts of the three remaining suspected chemicals but pointed out that these occur naturally in all canned foods.

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• 首先可以怀疑这个检验员的资质，其次即使资质过关，他也和原公司有太多的利益瓜葛。必须要求第三方或者政府机构出面调查。

• We do not know how many tuna cans did Promofoods sell in total last year, thus could not evaluate if the eight million return cans are among the batch which caused the problems. We do not know if tuna cans are the only kind of food Promofoods sell last year, hence we could not evaluate if the test makes any sense.

• The author fails to rule out the possibility that it is the three remaining chemicals that resulted in the problem.

• The author generalizes too hastily that the tested cans do not contain any chemicals that pose a health risk at all.

• The chemists failed to examine the samples for other chemicals or substances that could cause dizziness and nausea. 这就是说实际上可能不是那八种物质引起的问题，这作者的论证非常不合理。

• 其次问题可能出在鱼本身上，比如污染水域长大的鱼；运输、加工、储运中的问题。再次，是不是气候或者环境的问题呢？这种鱼在特定的时候不适合食用或者不适合特定的人群食用。

# 第70类

## 83

The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.

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“In 1975 a wildlife census found that there were seven species of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, with abundant numbers of each species. However, in 2002 only four species of amphibians were observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. There has been a substantial decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide, and global pollution of water and air is clearly implicated. The decline of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, however, almost certainly has a different cause: in 1975, trout—which are known to eat amphibian eggs—were introduced into the park.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

\

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• In 1975 a wildlife census found that there were seven species of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, with abundant numbers of each species. However, in 2002 only four species of amphibians were observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced.

• There has been a substantial decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide, and global pollution of water and air is clearly implicated.

• In 1975, trout(trout n.鳟鱼；鲑鱼(属))—which are known to eat amphibian eggs—were introduced into the park.

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• 作者虽然使用了不同的调查，但是这些调查太过于模糊，需要更多的数据告诉我们这些成果是不是按照科学的实验方法进行的实验，作者使用的论据并不能真地代表最后的结果。比如只是动物发生了迁移，从A地到了B地，或者只是代表人类的影响，导致了以前的探测手段难以观察到它们呢？

• The author does not provide information concerning the level of pollution at different regions, thus the assumption that pollution is responsible for the decline in the numbers of amphibians everywhere is unwarranted. 作者这里的逻辑非常强词夺理，难道不可能是因为全球的人类活动增加，或者气候变化变化？The author provides no direct evidence to show that it is the pollution that resulted in the decline in the number of amphibians.

• The argument fails to rule out the introduction of trout as a cause for the decline in the numbers of amphibians despite it could not explain the worldwide trend.

• The author ignores factors other than the pollution and the introduction of trout which could explain the decline in amphibian numbers in Xanadu National Park.

## 84

The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.

\

“Two studies of amphibians in Xanadu National Park confirm a significant decline in the numbers of amphibians. In 1975 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 2002 only four species of amphibians were observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. One proposed explanation is that the decline was caused by the introduction of trout into the park’s waters, which began in 1975. (Trout are known to eat amphibian eggs.)”

\

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

# 第71类

## 85

In a study of the reading habits of Waymarsh citizens conducted by the University of Waymarsh, most respondents said that they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a second study conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Waymarsh was the mystery novel. Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits.

\

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

\

• In a study of the reading habits of Waymarsh citizens conducted by the University of Waymarsh, most respondents said that they preferred literary classics as reading material.

• However, a second study conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Waymarsh was the mystery novel.

\

• We do not know how many, and what kind of citizens responded to the survey, thus the representativeness of the result is open to doubt.

• The frequency of certain type of book being checked out from the public libraries is not a good indication of what kind of reading material do citizens prefer. 比如可能大家不去图书馆借书，自己买书或者网上阅读，或者电子书，使用Amzon Kindle等等。

• The author does not analyze to what extent the literary classics and mystery novels mentioned in the argument overlap.

• The author fails to provide evidence to show that the result of the follow-up study is representative of all-time reading habits of Waymarsh citizens.

• We do not know how the two studies can be compared or not, many conditions may change after sufficient long time. 比如第一个是在街头随机抽问，第二个是在图书馆询问各个同学，这两个人群事实上是不同的。

• The author unfairly assumes that the respondents in the first study borrow most of their reading materials from public libraries.

• The author fails to consider other explanation that could explain the discrepancy between the respondents’ answer and the result of the follow-up study, e.g. if the respondents were forthright, if they correctly understood the survey’s question, etc.

\ \

## 87

In a study of the reading habits of Waymarsh citizens conducted by the University of Waymarsh, most respondents said they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a second study conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Waymarsh was the mystery novel. Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading preferences.

\

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

# 第72类

## 86

The following appeared in a memo at XYZ company.

\

“When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those employees assistance in creating résumés and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. Laid-off employees have benefited greatly from Delany’s services: last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not. Recently, it has been proposed that we use the less expensive Walsh Personnel Firm in place of Delany. This would be a mistake because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a year. Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. After all, last year Delany’s clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh’s clients took nine.”

\

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

\

\

• This would be a mistake because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a year.

• Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its bigger staff and larger number of branch offices.

• After all, last year Delany’s clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh’s clients took nine.

\

• The author unfairly attributes the successful employment result of the laid-off employees who used Delany to Delany’s assistance.

• The fact that only half of the laid-off workers found jobs within a year may not result from ineffectiveness of Walsh.

• Many factors could explain the differences between the employment results of using each company.

• Without any comparative data, we cannot determine if the employment result of workers who use Walsh eight years ago are poor.

• Many conditions would have changed during the past eight years.

• The size of staff and number of branch offices do not necessarily indicate the quality and effectiveness of a company’s service.

• A bigger staff may just indicate that the efficiency at Delany is lower.

• There is no significant difference between finding job within six months and within nine months.

• Without detailed description of jobs found by Delany’s clients and Walsh’s clients respectively, and without more information about their clients, we cannot evaluate which company is more effective.

• A single year’s placement statistics hardly suffices to draw any firm conclusions.

\

\

## 89

The following appeared in a memo at XYZ company.

\

“When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those employees assistance in creating résumés and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. Laid-off employees have benefited greatly from Delany’s services: last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not. Recently, it has been proposed that we use the less expensive Walsh Personnel Firm in place of Delany. This would be a mistake because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a year. Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. After all, last year Delany’s clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh’s clients took nine.”

\

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

\ \

# 第73类

## 91

Three years ago, because of flooding at the Western Palean Wildlife Preserve, 100 lions and 100 western gazelles were moved to the East Palean Preserve, an area that is home to most of the same species that are found in the western preserve, though in larger numbers, and to the eastern gazelle, a close relative of the western gazelle. The only difference in climate is that the eastern preserve typically has slightly less rainfall. Unfortunately, after three years in the eastern preserve, the imported western gazelle population has been virtually eliminated. Since the slight reduction in rainfall cannot be the cause of the virtual elimination of western gazelle, their disappearance must have been caused by the larger number of predators in the eastern preserve.

\

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

\

\

• Three years ago, because of flooding at the Western Palean Wildlife Preserve, 100 lions and 100 western gazelles were moved to the East Palean Preserve, an area that is home to most of the same species that are found in the western preserve, though in larger numbers, and to the eastern gazelle, a close relative of the western gazelle. The only difference in climate is that the eastern preserve typically has slightly less rainfall. Unfortunately, after three years in the eastern preserve, the imported western gazelle population has been virtually eliminated.

• The slight reduction in rainfall cannot be the cause of the virtual elimination of western gazelle

\

\

\

• 假设作者的论点正确，是捕食者导致的物种灭绝。那么作为西部瞪羚的近亲的东部瞪羚为什么没有灭绝呢？这里面有什么原因？

• 作者排除了降水因素，但是还是有很多的因素需要考虑。比如环境中的病毒，寄生虫；是不是人类捕杀呢？同时一个很明显的因素是这些迁移到东部地区的西部狮子是非常标准的所谓食肉动物，但是作者没有给出描述，作者事实上可以进一步加强研究，而不是这么仓促地下结论。

• 作者说的降水只是slight difference，但是slight是个很模糊的形容词，比如这个区别是不是可以导致西部瞪羚喜欢的某种水草无法生长，所以导致了西部瞪羚的灭绝。

\

\

# 第74类

## 92

Workers in the small town of Leeville take fewer sick days than workers in the large city of Masonton, 50 miles away. Moreover, relative to population size, the diagnosis of stress-related illness is proportionally much lower in Leeville than in Masonton. According to the Leeville Chamber of Commerce, these facts can be attributed to the health benefits of the relatively relaxed pace of life in Leeville.

\

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

\

\

\

• Workers in the small town of Leeville take fewer sick days than workers in the large city of Masonton, 50 miles away.

• Moreover, relative to population size, the diagnosis of stress-related illness is proportionally much lower in Leeville than in Masonton.

\

• The number of days of sick leave taken by individuals does not necessarily indicate their health status.

• 事实上也可能是因为布局的产业结构不同导致的差异。比如，手工作坊式的产业形态更加轻松；而全球化的生产方式，则面对着cut-throat competition这样的原因可能更加是适合的解释。

• 也可能是环境导致的，比如污染较少，空气清新，食物中又健康食品。

• 也可能是宗教或者其他因素导致的两个地方心态不同。心理健康差异。

\

\

## 101

There is now evidence that the relaxed pace of life in small towns promotes better health and greater longevity than does the hectic pace of life in big cities. Businesses in the small town of Leeville report fewer days of sick leave taken by individual workers than do businesses in the nearby large city of Masonton. Furthermore, Leeville has only one physician for its one thousand residents, but in Masonton the proportion of physicians to residents is five times as high. Finally, the average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Masonton residents. These findings suggest that people seeking longer and healthier lives should consider moving to small communities.

\

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

\

• The proportion of physicians to residents is not a good indication of the health level of citizens.

• The fact that Leeville has lower proportion of physicians to residents may just suggest that residents here may have difficulty in finding adequate health care.

• The author ignores many other differences that would contribute to the higher average age of Leeville residents.

• Leeville and Mason City are not necessarily representative of all small towns and big cities.

• Granted that living in small towns does promote better health and greater longevity, we cannot ensure that living at small communities would have the same advantages.

• The author fails to consider the disadvantages and inconveniences of living in small towns.

## 103

There is now evidence that the relaxed pace of life in small towns promotes better health and greater longevity than does the hectic pace of life in big cities. Businesses in the small town of Leeville report fewer days of sick leave taken by individual workers than do businesses in the nearby large city of Masonton. Furthermore, Leeville has only one physician for its one thousand residents, but in Masonton the proportion of physicians to residents is five times as high. Finally, the average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Masonton residents. These findings suggest that the relaxed pace of life in Leeville allows residents to live longer, healthier lives.

\

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

# 第75类

## 97

The following appeared in an e-mail sent by the marketing director of the Classical Shakespeare Theatre of Bardville.

\

“Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions. In spite of increased advertising, we are attracting fewer and fewer people to our shows, causing our profits to decrease significantly. We must take action to attract new audience members. The best way to do so is by instituting a ‘Shakespeare in the Park’ program this summer. Two years ago the nearby Avon Repertory Company started a ‘Free Plays in the Park’ program, and its profits have increased 10 percent since then. If we start a ‘Shakespeare in the Park’ program, we can predict that our profits will increase, too.”

\

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

\

\

• Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions. In spite of increased advertising, we are attracting fewer and fewer people to our shows, causing our profits to decrease significantly.

• Two years ago the nearby Avon Repertory Company started a ‘Free Plays in the Park’ program, and its profits have increased 10 percent since then. If we start a ‘Shakespeare in the Park’ program, we can predict that our profits will increase, too.

\

• 首先是数据的问题：20%的下降这个数字是怎么得到的？作者有没有因为自己的利益问题夸大这个数字？在针对市场做改进的时候，我们的数据必须真实可信。

• 其次，这20%的萎缩是由什么原因带来的？是行业整体的原因还是个别的现象？如果是个别的现象事实上，我们针对这家剧院采取的行动才有意义。如果是行业的整体问题，那么解决的办法也就相对的更加复杂。

\

• 模仿另外一家剧院采取行动。确实是个方法，但是前提是这两个家剧院拥有可比性，如果没有可比性，它们的目标人群观众人群都不同，比如一个是歌舞剧爱好者，一个是京剧票友群，目标人群的消费能力等。同时Avon Repertory Company的增长是一个开放活动带来的么？

• 从常识上，我们可以知道肯定还有其他的方法，比如改进舞台声光布置，提高演员水平，培育潜在市场，多打广告等等。

\

\

# 第76类

## 113

The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.

\

“Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a 500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read would cost Acme only $500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, to improve productivity, Acme should require all of our employees to take the Easy Read course.” \ Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice. \ 论点：To improve productivity, Acme should require all of our employees to take the Easy Read course. \ 论据： \ • Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a 500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. • Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. • Moreover, Easy Read would cost Acme only$500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits.

• Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter.

\

\

• The director commits a fallacy of false analogy, are these companies comparable? 归纳推理永远的痛，没有办法保证这些类比是可以使用的，因为大部分情况下我们需要考虑很多的因素。同时，我们无法确认这些公司透露的都是实情，还需要确认；即使是真实的，是不是适合我们公司呢？

• No information about the reading speed of the first graduate before taking the course is provided, thus we could not evaluate the effect of the course.

• We do not know what kind of reading material did the first graduate read, thus cannot evaluate this piece of evidence.

• 同时，作者错误的强调了阅读的速度代表了思考的深度。如果一个人的基础知识缺乏，批判性思考能力很弱，那么即使阅读的速度很快也不能够带来知识的增长。

• 其次作者的账算得不对。首先不止是学费的$500,我们还要记入这些员工没有去工作的损失，这是沉没成本。其次如果公司员工很多的话，其实这是非常大的开销。最后是不是公司的每个人都需要参加这个培训呢？ • Without providing the prices of other similar courses, the assumption that 500 dollars is a cheap tuition is open to doubt. • The director fails to convince us that all employees at Acme Publishing Company need to improve their reading speed. Not every worker has to attain a lot of information in their workplace. • The director assumes without warrant that the benefits of the course will outweigh its costs. ## 126 The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company. \ “Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a 500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read would cost Acme only$500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course.”

\

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

## 127

The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.

\

“Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a 500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read would cost Acme only $500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, to improve overall productivity, Acme should require all of our employees to take the Easy Read course.” \ Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation. ## 161 The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company. \ “Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a 500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read would cost Acme only$500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course.”

\

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

# 第77类

## 132

The following appeared in a letter to the school board in the town of Centerville.

\

“All students should be required to take the driver’s education course at Centerville High School. In the past two years, several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers. Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some other instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers. Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction. Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem.”

\

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

\

\

• In the past two years, several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers.

• Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some other instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers.

• Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction.

\

\

• The author’s assumption that all students in Centerville need to take the course is open to doubt.

• The arguer fails to point out the severity of accidents, and who actually caused these accidents. 如果事故数目不多或者不是很严重，那么作者的论据的紧迫性就消失了。In the absence of comparative accident rate during earlier years, we cannot evaluate if the situation are getting worse and if the program is necessary.

• The high accident rate might be caused by many factors, thus implementing the program alone may not suffice to ensure lower accident rate. 比如城市的车流量太大，太多的车辆上路，交通指挥系统太差，道路过窄，交通执法不力等等，这是单靠学生自己改变很难改变的。

• Having no time to teach their children to drive does not necessarily imply that the parents are unable to ensure their children to be safe drivers, the safe-driving course is not equal to driving instruction. 同时The author fails to inform us the percentage of parents who have no time to teach their children to drive and who are on tight budgets. 这里其实家长没空，难道不可以请亲戚教导么？其次，难道不可以让政府专门设立针对学生的驾校么？

• The proposed program sponsored by the high school may not be the only solution to the problem. 这里如果跳出驾校，那么是不是可以政府提供资金开通专门的校园bus，或者补贴学生费用，校车花费等等。

• The author fails to consider if the high school are qualified to offer the program.

• The author fails to consider if the high school has the responsibility and enough funding to sponsor the program, and if students will accept it.

\

\

## 134

The following appeared in a letter to the school board in the town of Centerville.

\

“All students should be required to take the driver’s education course at Centerville High School. In the past two years, several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers. Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some other instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers. Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction. Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem.”

\

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

## 136

The following appeared in a letter to the school board in the town of Centerville.

\

“All students should be required to take the driver’s education course at Centerville High School. In the past two years, several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers. Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some other instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers. Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction. Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem.”

\

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

# 第78类

## 135

The data from a survey of high school math and science teachers show that in the district of Sanlee many of these teachers reported assigning daily homework, whereas in the district of Marlee, most science and math teachers reported assigning homework no more than two or three days per week. Despite receiving less frequent homework assignments, Marlee students earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are students in Sanlee. These results call into question the usefulness of frequent homework assignments. Most likely the Marlee students have more time to concentrate on individual assignments than do the Sanlee students who have homework every day. Therefore teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week.

\

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

\

\

• The data from a survey of high school math and science teachers show that in the district of Sanlee many of these teachers reported assigning daily homework, whereas in the district of Marlee, most science and math teachers reported assigning homework no more than two or three days per week.

• Despite receiving less frequent homework assignments, Marlee students earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are students in Sanlee. These results call into question the usefulness of frequent homework assignments.

• Most likely the Marlee students have more time to concentrate on individual assignments than do the Sanlee students who have homework every day.

\

• The result of the survey lacks credibility because many teachers in other subjects were actually excluded from the survey. 同时调查者的背景，利益关系，是不是客观中立，都没有提供。

• The author provides no information about the respective total amount of homework assigned each time in Sanlee and Marlee.

• The author fails to establish the causal relationship between homework frequency and students’ performance.

• Many other differences between Sanlee and Marlee could explain the differences in their students’ grades and likelihood to repeat a year of school.

• The students’ grades and likelihood to repeat a year of school are not a good indication of the quality of education.

• The two districts may not be representative of the state’s school districts overall.

• The author fails to illustrate why we should assign homework no more than twice a week, but not more or less.

• The author ignores some negative effects of assign inadequate homework.

• The author unfairly assumes that any educational activity is valuable only to the extent that it enhances overall grades.

\

\

## 137

While the Department of Education in the state of Attra recommends that high school students be assigned homework every day, the data from a recent statewide survey of high school math and science teachers give us reason to question the usefulness of daily homework. In the district of Sanlee, 86 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week, whereas in the district of Marlee, less than 25 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week. Yet the students in Marlee earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are the students in Sanlee. Therefore, all teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week.

\

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

## 140

While the Department of Education in the state of Attra suggests that high school students be assigned homework every day, the data from a recent statewide survey of high school math and science teachers give us reason to question the usefulness of daily homework. In the district of Sanlee, 86 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week, whereas in the district of Marlee, less than 25 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week. Yet the students in Marlee earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are the students in Sanlee. Therefore, we recommend that all teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week.

\

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

# 第79类

## 142

Hospital statistics regarding people who go to the emergency room after roller-skating accidents indicate the need for more protective equipment. Within that group of people, 75 percent of those who had accidents in streets or parking lots had not been wearing any protective clothing (helmets, knee pads, etc.) or any light-reflecting material (clip-on lights, glow-in-the-dark wrist pads, etc.). Clearly, the statistics indicate that by investing in high-quality protective gear and reflective equipment, roller skaters will greatly reduce their risk of being severely injured in an accident.

\

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

\

\

\

• Hospital statistics regarding people who go to the emergency room after roller-skating accidents indicate the need for more protective equipment.

• Within that group of people, 75 percent of those who had accidents in streets or parking lots had not been wearing any protective clothing (helmets, knee pads, etc.) or any light-reflecting material (clip-on lights, glow-in-the-dark wrist pads, etc.).

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• 数据来自医院而且是医院的急诊室，一般这里的病例都是比较紧急的外伤。也就是作者在统计数据的时候自然采用过了比较严重的roller-skating accidents。大量的轻微伤害作者没有统计。同时不得不质疑作者数据来源的科学性和客观中立性，比如是不是受到药厂，急救样品厂的影响等。

• 75 percent of those who had accidents in streets or parking lots had not been wearing any protective clothing or any light-reflecting material这里其实作者犯了两件事物同时发生就是因果的逻辑错误。因为还有其他原因可能导致，比如停车场和大街比较拥挤，年轻人喜欢做刺激危险的动作，培训过少等等都会导致严重伤害。

• 结论要求大家investing in high-quality protective gear and reflective equipment也有问题，这里他首先假设roller-skaters都受伤很严重；其次他假设这些设备可以保护；其次，他假设这些high-quality必须比普通的产品好上很多很多；然后还要假设没有其他因素可以带来保护。比如我可以更换滑雪场所等等。

• 同时他没有给出protective clothing (helmets, knee pads, etc.) 和 light-reflecting material (clip-on lights, glow-in-the-dark wrist pads, etc.)的区别，这样那些受伤的人群事实上可以被划分成好几种情况，是不是这些设别必须配合使用还是说只用一件即可。这些都会导致不同的防护效果。

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# 第80类

## 152

The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of Bargain Brand Cereals.

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“One year ago we introduced our first product, Bargain Brand breakfast cereal. Our very low prices quickly drew many customers away from the top-selling cereal companies. Although the companies producing the top brands have since tried to compete with us by lowering their prices and although several plan to introduce their own budget brands, not once have we needed to raise our prices to continue making a profit. Given our success in selling cereal, we recommend that Bargain Brand now expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food products as quickly as possible.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

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cereal  [ˈsiəriəl] n.加工而成的谷类食物；谷类植物，谷物

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• One year ago we introduced our first product, Bargain Brand breakfast cereal. Our very low prices quickly drew many customers away from the top-selling cereal companies.

• Although the companies producing the top brands have since tried to compete with us by lowering their prices and although several plan to introduce their own budget brands, not once have we needed to raise our prices to continue making a profit.

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• The director unfairly assumes that it is the low price of Bargain Brand that attracted those customers.

• The argument contains no information concerning the actual profits of the company after ‘Bargain Brand’ cereal was introduced.

• The director over optimistically assumes that the strong sales of Bargain Brand breakfast cereal last year will continue in the following years.

• The director fails to provide any substantial evidence to show why other companies’ strategies constitute no threat to our company.

• The director hastily assumes that the company will succeed in selling other food products through their low-price strategy.

## 153

The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of Bargain Brand Cereals.

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“One year ago we introduced our first product, Bargain Brand breakfast cereal. Our very low prices quickly drew many customers away from the top-selling cereal companies. Although the companies producing the top brands have since tried to compete with us by lowering their prices and although several plan to introduce their own budget brands, not once have we needed to raise our prices to continue making a profit. Given our success in selling cereal, we recommend that Bargain Brand now expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food products as quickly as possible.”

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Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

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# 第81类

## 157

The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.

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“Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profit again.”

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Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

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• we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly.

• If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profit again.

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• Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that.

• Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly.

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• 作者没有办法排除还有其他因素带来Fish Emporium的生意增加，比如经济改善，新的鱼种引入，老年人的养鱼热。

• 这个类比非常的粗糙，是不是Fish Emporium成功的做法就一定可以移植到Top Dog Pet Stores。同时五年前有效地措施是不是可以延续？

• 即使要做广告，事实上也有其他的很多的选择。比如网站，电视，广播等等。

• Top Dog Pet Stores销量下降的原因可能是复杂的，比如管理原因，人们养dog突然变得不流行了，或者突发了dog的疫情等等。

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## 158

The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.

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“Five years ago, Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog has some of its largest stores in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profit again.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

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# 第82类

## 160

The following appeared in a recommendation from the President of the Amburg Chamber of Commerce.

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“Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg, on the other hand, recently instituted police patrols on bicycles in its business district. However, the rate of vandalism here remains constant. Since high-intensity lighting is clearly the most effective way to combat crime, we recommend using the money that is currently being spent on bicycle patrols to install such lighting throughout Amburg. If we install this high-intensity lighting, we will significantly reduce crime rates in Amburg.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

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• Since high-intensity lighting is clearly the most effective way to combat crime, we recommend using the money that is currently being spent on bicycle patrols to install such lighting throughout Amburg.

• If we install this high-intensity lighting, we will significantly reduce crime rates in Amburg.

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• Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately.

• The city of Amburg, on the other hand, recently instituted police patrols on bicycles in its business district. However, the rate of vandalism here remains constant.

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• The president unfairly assumes that it is the installation of high intensity lighting that resulted in the decline in vandalism in Belleville.

• Belleville and Amburg might not be comparable at many aspects.

• The author fails to point out in what places do most vandalism at Amburg take place, thus we cannot evaluate if the police patrols are ineffective.

• The president ignores many other effective ways to combat crime.

• The president fails to consider the cost of installing high intensity lighting throughout Amburg and if we could afford it.

• Granted that installing such lighting could reduce vandalism, the necessity of installing the lighting all over Amburg is open to doubt.

• Granted that installing such lighting could reduce vandalism, we cannot guarantee that it would deter other types of crimes since vandalism is not the only type of crime in Amburg.

• The president unfairly assumes that the proposed actions would sufficiently guarantee revitalization of city neighborhoods.

## 172

The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg’s Chamber of Commerce.

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“Last October the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined within a month. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district, but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. We should install high-intensity lighting throughout Amburg, then, because doing so is a more effective way to combat crime. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

# 第83类

## 168

The following is a letter that recently appeared in the Oak City Gazette, a local newspaper.

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“The primary function of the Committee for a Better Oak City is to advise the city government on how to make the best use of the city’s limited budget. However, at some of our recent meetings we failed to make important decisions because of the foolish objections raised by committee members who are not even residents of Oak City. People who work in Oak City but who live elsewhere cannot fully understand the business and politics of the city. After all, only Oak City residents pay city taxes, and therefore only residents understand how that money could best be used to improve the city. We recommend, then, that the Committee for a Better Oak City vote to restrict its membership to city residents only. We predict that, without the interference of non-residents, the committee will be able to make Oak City a better place in which to live and work.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

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• We recommend, then, that the Committee for a Better Oak City vote to restrict its membership to city residents only.

• We predict that, without the interference of non-residents, the committee will be able to make Oak City a better place in which to live and work.

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• The primary function of the Committee for a Better Oak City is to advise the city government on how to make the best use of the city’s limited budget. However, at some of our recent meetings we failed to make important decisions because of the foolish objections raised by committee members who are not even residents of Oak City.

• People who work in Oak City but who live elsewhere cannot fully understand the business and politics of the city. After all, only Oak City residents pay city taxes, and therefore only residents understand how that money could best be used to improve the city.

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• 第一点攻击这些非本地的议员恶意干扰会议，但是没有给出原因为什么这些议员反对这些提案，事实上有人身攻击的嫌疑。同样的没有任何理由说明为什么他们的发对是foolish的。同样的没有给出本地议员对于这些提案的态度，如果这些提案本地议员也反对呢？

• The assumption that residents necessarily understand the business and politics of the city better than nonresidents is unwarranted.

• 一个人是不是能够很好地理解budget的使用取决于一个知识，教育，文化水平以及对于一个城市的定位认识，不同人会有不同的认识，但是显然不能说纳税与否是判断的标准。Paying city taxes is neither sufficient nor necessary for one to fully understand local economical and political issues.

• 对于一个城市而言，如果城市需要发展，那么其实更加需要的就是外来人口的加入。外来人口的多元化背景会促进城市的进一步发展与更新。

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# 第84类

## 170

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a company that builds shopping malls around the country.

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“The surface of a section of Route 101, paved just two years ago by Good Intentions Roadways, is now badly cracked with a number of dangerous potholes. In another part of the state, a section of Route 40, paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition. In a demonstration of their continuing commitment to quality, Appian Roadways recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery and hired a new quality-control manager. Therefore, I recommend hiring Appian Roadways to construct the access roads for all our new shopping malls. I predict that our Appian access roads will not have to be repaired for at least four years.”

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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

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• Therefore, I recommend hiring Appian Roadways to construct the access roads for all our new shopping malls.

• I predict that our Appian access roads will not have to be repaired for at least four years.

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• The surface of a section of Route 101, paved just two years ago by Good Intentions Roadways, is now badly cracked with a number of dangerous potholes. In another part of the state, a section of Route 40, paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition.

• In a demonstration of their continuing commitment to quality, Appian Roadways recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery and hired a new quality-control manager.

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• Only one of all roads built by each company is compared, and only one section of each road is compared, thus we cannot evaluate the overall quality of construction of the two companies.

• Many other factors that would influence the condition of a road are ignored by the president.

• No information about the performance of the new quality-control manager at Good Intentions Roadways is provided. 比如Good Intentions Roadways也可以在提高自己的实力，所以这个证据缺失。

• Many factors besides equipment and on-site management would also affect the quality of a pavement job.

• Granted that the quality of routes paved by Appian is superior, we cannot guarantee Appian could also do an excellent job in constructing the access roads for shopping malls.

• The president hastily assumes that Appian is capable of constructing the access roads of all new shopping malls.

• The president fails to consider if Appian are willing to contract with the company to construct access roads.

• Other competent companies might be available for the president to choose from.

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Written on September 23, 2012